UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8) taking on Paige VanZant (5-3). VanZant will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: VanZant at 1038 versus Waterson-Gomez at 908. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while VanZant looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving VanZant the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waterson-Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Waterson-Gomez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paige VanZant over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. The model gives VanZant a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on Sage Northcutt (5-2). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Northcutt is rated at 1249 — 488 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gall looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Northcutt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mickey Gall over Sage Northcutt. The model gives Gall a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8).

Faber is rated at 1297 — 463 points above Pickett's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Urijah Faber over Brad Pickett. The model is firm on this one: Faber at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Faber at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Jouban is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jouban at 1168 versus Perry at 1066. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Jouban's striker game against Perry's all-rounder approach. Jouban brings a versatile approach, while Perry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perry throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jouban is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Perry over Alan Jouban. The model gives Perry a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Henrique da Silva (2-3).

Craig is rated at 1045 — 286 points above Silva's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Craig the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henrique da Silva over Paul Craig. We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Miller at 891 versus Hirota at 777. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hirota's striker game against Miller's wrestler approach. Hirota brings a versatile approach, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hirota throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hirota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Miller over Mizuto Hirota. We're leaning Miller here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 51% for Hirota, but our model sees only 35%. That 16-point gap favoring Miller is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 671 points above Barberena's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Covington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Bryan Barberena. We're leaning Covington here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on James Moontasri (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moontasri at 984 versus Morono at 868. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moontasri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Morono over James Moontasri. The model gives Morono a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Morono at 51% implied while our model sees 58% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holtzman.

Emmett is rated at 1356 — 368 points above Holtzman's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Holtzman's all-rounder approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Holtzman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Josh Emmett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holtzman at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Emmett, but our model sees only 49%. That 12-point gap favoring Holtzman is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Leslie Smith (3-3) taking on Irene Aldana (8-5).

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 215 points above Smith's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Smith's striker game against Aldana's all-rounder approach. Smith brings a versatile approach, while Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Irene Aldana over Leslie Smith. The model is firm on this one: Aldana at 76%. The market implies 27% for Smith, but our model sees only 24%. That 3-point gap favoring Aldana is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mizugaki at 995 versus Wineland at 865. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Takeya Mizugaki. We're leaning Wineland here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Wineland at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Hector Sandoval (2-1) taking on Fredy Serrano (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sandoval at 983, Serrano at 984. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandoval throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Serrano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Serrano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hector Sandoval over Fredy Serrano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sandoval at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sultan Aliev (1-2) taking on Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aliev at 1088 versus Velickovic at 1001. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliev throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Velickovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bojan Velickovic over Sultan Aliev. The model gives Velickovic a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.