UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Saturday, December 10, 2016·Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holloway 66%34% Pettis
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Holloway)
Welterweight✓
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cerrone 78%22% Brown
STRONGMarket: 70% (+8.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +526(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Cerrone)
Featherweight✗
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 49%51% Choi
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Swanson)
Middleweight✓
Kelvin Gastelum won by KO/TKO (R3)
Gastelum 70%30% Kennedy
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+29.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +187(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kennedy)
Welterweight✓
Emil Meek won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Meek 51%49% Mein
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -207(favors Mein)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Mein)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Mein)
Light Heavyweight✓
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 53%47% Krylov
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -174(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Cirkunov)
Lightweight✓
Olivier Aubin-Mercier won by Submission (R2)
Aubin-Mercier 67%33% Dober
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+6.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Women's Strawweight✗
Viviane Pereira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pereira 48%52% Letourneau
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +17(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Letourneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Letourneau)
Bantamweight✗
Matthew Lopez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopez 43%57% Gagnon
LEANMarket: 46% (-3.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -245(favors Gagnon)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Gagnon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gagnon)
Lightweight✗
Lando Vannata won by KO/TKO (R1)
Vannata 45%55% Makdessi
LEANMarket: 59% (-14.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Makdessi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Makdessi)
Lightweight✓
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 69%31% Saggo
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Saggo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Khabilov)
Flyweight✓
Dustin Ortiz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ortiz 57%43% Makovsky
LEANMarket: 40% (+17.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Makovsky)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Ortiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Makovsky)