UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Pettis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 386 points above Pettis's 1512. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holloway's knockout artist game against Pettis's all-rounder approach. Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holloway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Anthony Pettis.** We're leaning Holloway here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 61% implied while our model sees 66% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 1201 versus Cerrone at 1054. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's knockout artist game against Brown's all-rounder approach. Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Matt Brown.** The model is firm on this one: Cerrone at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 70% implied while our model sees 78% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Dooho Choi (4-3-1).

Choi carries a modest Elo edge (1314 to 1255), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Swanson's all-rounder game against Choi's knockout artist approach. Swanson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Choi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dooho Choi over Cub Swanson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Tim Kennedy (3-1). Kennedy is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gastelum at 1340 versus Kennedy at 1227. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kennedy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kennedy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Tim Kennedy.** We're leaning Gastelum here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gastelum at 41% implied while our model sees 70% — a 29-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Emil Meek (1-2) taking on Jordan Mein (4-4).

Mein is rated at 1192 — 187 points above Meek's 1005. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mein throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Meek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Emil Meek over Jordan Mein.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meek at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-6) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 533 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cirkunov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Cirkunov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Cirkunov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Nikita Krylov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cirkunov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cirkunov at 50% implied while our model sees 53% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Aubin-Mercier at 1070, Dober at 1083. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Drew Dober.** We're leaning Aubin-Mercier here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Aubin-Mercier at 61% implied while our model sees 67% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Viviane Pereira (2-1) taking on Valerie Letourneau (3-2). Letourneau is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pereira carries a modest Elo edge (963 to 918), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Letourneau throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Letourneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valerie Letourneau over Viviane Pereira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Letourneau at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pereira at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matthew Lopez (2-3) taking on Mitch Gagnon (4-3). Lopez is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lopez carries a modest Elo edge (999 to 955), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Lopez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gagnon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lopez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gagnon throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gagnon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gagnon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mitch Gagnon over Matthew Lopez.** The model gives Gagnon a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Lopez, but our model sees only 43%. That 3-point gap favoring Gagnon is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Lando Vannata (4-6-2) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Vannata will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Vannata at 898. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Vannata's all-rounder game against Makdessi's striker approach. Vannata is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Makdessi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Makdessi over Lando Vannata.** The model gives Makdessi a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Vannata, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring Makdessi is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Jason Saggo (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Saggo.

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 376 points above Saggo's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saggo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Jason Saggo.** We're leaning Khabilov here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Khabilov at 66% implied while our model sees 69% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Zach Makovsky (3-3).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 333 points above Makovsky's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ortiz's all-rounder game against Makovsky's striker approach. Ortiz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makovsky brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Makovsky is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Makovsky has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Zach Makovsky.** The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ortiz at 40% implied while our model sees 57% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.