UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Saturday, November 19, 2016·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Ryan Bader won by KO/TKO (R3)
Bader 74%26% Nogueira
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-0.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +240(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Nogueira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Bader)
Bantamweight✓
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 78%22% Morales
STRONGMarket: 73% (+4.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Morales)
Women's Strawweight✓
Claudia Gadelha won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gadelha 69%31% Casey
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Casey)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Gadelha)
Middleweight✓
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 66%34% Leites
CONFIDENTMarket: 42% (+23.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Leites)
Welterweight✓
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 73%27% Alves
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+7.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Usman)
Welterweight✓
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Moraes 69%31% Ottow
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+2.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Ottow)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Moraes)
Middleweight✓
Cezar Ferreira won by Submission (R2)
Ferreira 55%45% Hermansson
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+2.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Ferreira)
Light Heavyweight✗
Gadzhimurad Antigulov won by Submission (R1)
Antigulov 35%65% Lima
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (-4.1% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lima)
Bantamweight✗
Johnny Eduardo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Eduardo 44%56% Gamburyan
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Eduardo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Eduardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Gamburyan)
Heavyweight✓
Luis Henrique won by Submission (R3)
Henrique 84%16% Colombo
STRONGMarket: 70% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +30(favors Henrique)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Colombo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Henrique)
Bantamweight✗
Pedro Munhoz won by Submission (R2)
Munhoz 31%69% Scoggins
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Scoggins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Scoggins)
Light Heavyweight
Barroso 45%55% Stewart
LEANMarket: 56% (-11.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Barroso)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Barroso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Barroso)