UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 476 points above Nogueira's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Rogerio Nogueira. We're leaning Bader here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-4) taking on Albert Morales (1-3-1). Morales is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 951 versus Morales at 804. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Albert Morales. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Almeida at 73% implied while our model sees 78% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gadelha is rated at 1187 — 283 points above Casey's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Gadelha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Cortney Casey. We're leaning Gadelha here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Gadelha, but our model sees only 69%. That 6-point gap favoring Casey is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Thales Leites (12-8).

Jotko carries a modest Elo edge (1222 to 1176), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Jotko's striker game against Leites's wrestler approach. Jotko brings a versatile approach, while Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Thales Leites. We're leaning Jotko here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 42% implied while our model sees 66% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7). Usman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 933 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alves looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Alves the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Warlley Alves. We're leaning Usman here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Zak Ottow (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moraes at 1097 versus Ottow at 963. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Moraes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ottow is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moraes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ottow throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Zak Ottow. We're leaning Moraes here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hermansson at 1117 versus Ferreira at 1033. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Jack Hermansson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 500 points above Antigulov's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Antigulov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lima is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Antigulov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Antigulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Gadzhimurad Antigulov. We're leaning Lima here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 39% for Antigulov, but our model sees only 35%. That 4-point gap favoring Lima is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Eduardo (3-4) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). Eduardo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamburyan at 972 versus Eduardo at 873. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Eduardo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamburyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eduardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Eduardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Johnny Eduardo. The model gives Gamburyan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Luis Henrique (2-3) taking on Christian Colombo (0-1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Henrique at 831, Colombo at 814. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Colombo throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henrique is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Henrique has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Henrique over Christian Colombo. The model is firm on this one: Henrique at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Henrique at 70% implied while our model sees 84% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Justin Scoggins (4-4).

Munhoz is rated at 1211 — 350 points above Scoggins's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Scoggins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Scoggins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Pedro Munhoz. We're leaning Scoggins here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 38% for Munhoz, but our model sees only 31%. That 7-point gap favoring Scoggins is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Francimar Barroso (4-3) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barroso at 961, Stewart at 940. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Barroso's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Barroso brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barroso throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Stewart over Francimar Barroso. The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Barroso, but our model sees only 45%. That 11-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.