UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-5) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-8-1). Dolidze is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dolidze at 1555 versus Vettori at 1429. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze. The model gives Vettori a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-5) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1215 versus Njokuani at 1132. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Njokuani brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Chidi Njokuani. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (10-7) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-7).

Hernandez is rated at 1446 — 606 points above Holobaugh's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Kurt Holobaugh. We're leaning Hernandez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-4-1) taking on Cody Gibson (3-7).

Blackshear is rated at 1273 — 411 points above Gibson's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Blackshear is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gibson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Blackshear the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Gibson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blackshear at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brendson Ribeiro (2-5) taking on Diyar Nurgozhay (1-2). Ribeiro will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ribeiro at 901, Nurgozhay at 899. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribeiro throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurgozhay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diyar Nurgozhay over Brendson Ribeiro. We're leaning Nurgozhay here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ribeiro at 22% implied while our model sees 26% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Vallejos (4-0) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-7). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vallejos is rated at 1722 — 894 points above Choi's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Vallejos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Vallejos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Vallejos over SeungWoo Choi. The model gives Vallejos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-2) taking on Ryan Spann (9-6).

Acosta is rated at 1714 — 498 points above Spann's 1216. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Acosta rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Acosta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features SuYoung You (3-1) taking on AJ Cunningham (0-2). Cunningham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

You is rated at 1084 — 228 points above Cunningham's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. You rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cunningham throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. You is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. You has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SuYoung You over AJ Cunningham. The model is firm on this one: You at 78%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Carlos Vera (1-1) taking on Josias Musasa (0-2). Musasa is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1134 — 432 points above Musasa's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Musasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Musasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josias Musasa over Carlos Vera. The model is firm on this one: Musasa at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (6-6) taking on Stephanie Luciano (2-1).

Hughes carries a modest Elo edge (1201 to 1136), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hughes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luciano throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Luciano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. The model gives Luciano a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Andre Lima (4-0) taking on Daniel Barez (1-2).

Lima is rated at 1286 — 372 points above Barez's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lima rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Barez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Lima over Daniel Barez. The model is firm on this one: Lima at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-8) taking on Josiane Nunes (3-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Cachoeira.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cachoeira at 972 versus Nunes at 889. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachoeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josiane Nunes over Priscila Cachoeira. The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 76%. The market implies 40% for Cachoeira, but our model sees only 24%. That 16-point gap favoring Nunes is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Carli Judice (3-1) taking on Yuneisy Duben (0-1). Judice is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Judice is rated at 1233 — 509 points above Duben's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Judice throws significantly more leather — a 11.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Judice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Duben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. The model is firm on this one: Judice at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Judice at 72% implied while our model sees 80% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.