UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Dolidze is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 267 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Roman Dolidze. The model gives Vettori a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-4) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Njokuani carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1041), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Njokuani brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Njokuani at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 636 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Kurt Holobaugh. We're leaning Hernandez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Da'Mon Blackshear (5-3-1) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6).

Blackshear is rated at 1216 — 373 points above Gibson's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Blackshear rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Blackshear is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gibson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Blackshear the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackshear throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Blackshear is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Gibson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear over Cody Gibson. We're leaning Blackshear here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brendson Ribeiro (2-3) taking on Diyar Nurgozhay (0-1). Ribeiro will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribeiro is rated at 923 — 153 points above Nurgozhay's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribeiro throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nurgozhay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendson Ribeiro over Diyar Nurgozhay. The model gives Ribeiro a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Vallejos (2-0) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vallejos is rated at 1367 — 547 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Vallejos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Vallejos over SeungWoo Choi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vallejos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 520 points above Spann's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Acosta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Acosta at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features SuYoung You (2-0) taking on AJ Cunningham (0-1). Cunningham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

You is rated at 1207 — 320 points above Cunningham's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cunningham throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. You is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. You has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SuYoung You over AJ Cunningham. We're leaning You here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Carlos Vera (0-1) taking on Josias Musasa (0-1). Musasa is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1076 — 277 points above Musasa's 799. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Musasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Musasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josias Musasa over Carlos Vera. The model gives Musasa a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Sam Hughes (5-5) taking on Stephanie Luciano (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hughes at 1232 versus Luciano at 1105. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luciano throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Luciano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. The model gives Luciano a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Andre Lima (3-0) taking on Daniel Barez (1-1).

Lima is rated at 1207 — 291 points above Barez's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lima rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barez throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Barez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Lima over Daniel Barez. We're leaning Lima here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Priscila Cachoeira (5-7) taking on Josiane Nunes (3-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Cachoeira.

Cachoeira carries a modest Elo edge (903 to 866), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachoeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josiane Nunes over Priscila Cachoeira. We're leaning Nunes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Carli Judice (2-1) taking on Yuneisy Duben (0-0). Judice is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Judice is rated at 1183 — 346 points above Duben's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Judice throws significantly more leather — a 11.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Judice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Duben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carli Judice over Yuneisy Duben. The model gives Judice a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.