UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6). Justino will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Justino is rated at 1362 — 491 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Justino throws significantly more leather — a 19.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lansberg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lansberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Lina Lansberg.** The model is firm on this one: Justino at 93%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5). Nover is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Barao carries a modest Elo edge (821 to 767), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nover looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nover the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nover is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Nover has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renan Barao over Phillipe Nover.** The model is firm on this one: Barao at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Barao at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1129 — 198 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roy Nelson over Antonio Silva.** The model is firm on this one: Nelson at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Nelson at 80% implied while our model sees 86% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Paul Felder (9-5).

Felder carries a modest Elo edge (1363 to 1329), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Paul Felder.** The model gives Trinaldo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Trinaldo at 53% implied while our model sees 62% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Eric Spicely (2-4) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1292 — 565 points above Spicely's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spicely's wrestler game against Santos's striker approach. Spicely looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Santos over Eric Spicely.** The model is firm on this one: Santos at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Spicely at 16% implied while our model sees 20% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Godofredo Pepey (5-5) taking on Mike de la Torre (2-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Torre.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pepey at 1026 versus Torre at 936. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pepey's submission artist game against Torre's striker approach. Pepey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Torre brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torre throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Torre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Torre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike de la Torre over Godofredo Pepey.** The model gives Torre a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Pepey, but our model sees only 42%. That 11-point gap favoring Torre is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8). Burns is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Burns is rated at 1379 — 223 points above Prazeres's 1157. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Prazeres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Michel Prazeres.** The model gives Burns a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Prazeres at 32% implied while our model sees 40% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Michinori Tanaka (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yahya at 1030 versus Tanaka at 929. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanaka throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tanaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michinori Tanaka over Rani Yahya.** The model gives Tanaka a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Yahya, but our model sees only 42%. That 11-point gap favoring Tanaka is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Dustin Ortiz (8-5).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 180 points above Formiga's 1149. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Formiga is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jussier Formiga over Dustin Ortiz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Formiga at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Formiga, but our model sees only 54%. That 9-point gap favoring Ortiz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Luan Chagas (1-1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 951, Chagas at 973. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chagas throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Chagas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luan Chagas over Erick Silva.** We're leaning Chagas here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 45% for Silva, but our model sees only 34%. That 10-point gap favoring Chagas is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on Stevie Ray (6-4). Patrick will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ray is rated at 1193 — 331 points above Patrick's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ray is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Patrick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stevie Ray over Alan Patrick.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ray at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Patrick at 40% implied while our model sees 46% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Hector Urbina (1-1).

Luque is rated at 1250 — 335 points above Urbina's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Luque has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vicente Luque over Hector Urbina.** The model is firm on this one: Luque at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 81% implied while our model sees 87% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Glaico Franca Moreira (1-1). Moreira is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 584 points above Moreira's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Glaico Franca Moreira over Gregor Gillespie.** We're leaning Moreira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.