UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Saturday, September 3, 2016·Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany·11 fights
Model: 9/10(90%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Josh Barnett won by Submission (R3)
Barnett 64%36% Arlovski
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 59% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arlovski)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Gustafsson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gustafsson 83%17% Blachowicz
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 84% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +479(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Gustafsson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Bader won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bader 71%29% Latifi
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +253(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Latifi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Bader)
LightweightHIT
Nick Hein won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hein 69%31% Bang
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-4.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +233(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Hein)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Hein)
WelterweightHIT
Jessin Ayari won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ayari 54%46% Wallhead
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+10.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Wallhead)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Wallhead)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wallhead)
WelterweightMISS
Peter Sobotta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sobotta 45%55% Dalby
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 38% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Dalby)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ashlee Evans-Smith won by KO/TKO (R3)
Evans-Smith 58%42% Hardy
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Evans-Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Evans-Smith)
BantamweightHIT
Taylor Lapilus won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lapilus 70%30% Issa
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+10.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -39(favors Issa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Lapilus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Issa)
Heavyweight
Danho 62%38% Colombo
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEANMarket: 54% (+7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -79(favors Colombo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Danho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Colombo)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hermansson 51%49% Askham
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Askham)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Askham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Askham)
LightweightHIT
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 88%12% Silva
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +324(favors Khabilov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Khabilov)