UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 597 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Barnett over Andrei Arlovski.** The model gives Barnett a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Barnett at 59% implied while our model sees 65% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gustafsson.

Blachowicz is rated at 1578 — 409 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Jan Blachowicz.** The model is firm on this one: Gustafsson at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Bader.

Bader is rated at 1619 — 423 points above Latifi's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Latifi is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Latifi throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Ilir Latifi.** We're leaning Bader here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bader at 66% implied while our model sees 70% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nick Hein (4-3) taking on Tae Hyun Bang (2-2). Bang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bang at 951 versus Hein at 818. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hein throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Hein over Tae Hyun Bang.** We're leaning Hein here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jessin Ayari (1-2) taking on Jim Wallhead (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ayari at 815, Wallhead at 820. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wallhead throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wallhead is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wallhead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessin Ayari over Jim Wallhead.** The model gives Ayari a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ayari at 44% implied while our model sees 55% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Peter Sobotta (4-5) taking on Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1).

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 201 points above Sobotta's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sobotta's wrestler game against Dalby's striker approach. Sobotta looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dalby brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dalby throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Peter Sobotta.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dalby at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Sobotta at 38% implied while our model sees 49% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5) taking on Veronica Hardy (4-5). Evans-Smith is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1091 — 333 points above Evans-Smith's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Evans-Smith's striker game against Hardy's all-rounder approach. Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach, while Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans-Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Veronica Hardy over Ashlee Evans-Smith.** The model gives Hardy a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Leandro Issa (2-2). Lapilus will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 251 points above Issa's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Issa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lapilus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Leandro Issa.** We're leaning Lapilus here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lapilus at 59% implied while our model sees 67% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jarjis Danho (0-1-1) taking on Christian Colombo (0-1-1).

Danho is rated at 1064 — 250 points above Colombo's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danho throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Colombo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Colombo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jarjis Danho over Christian Colombo.** The model gives Danho a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Danho at 54% implied while our model sees 58% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Scott Askham (2-3).

Hermansson is rated at 1117 — 227 points above Askham's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hermansson's all-rounder game against Askham's knockout artist approach. Hermansson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Askham is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Askham throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Askham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Askham over Jack Hermansson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Askham at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 50% for Hermansson, but our model sees only 46%. That 4-point gap favoring Askham is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Leandro Silva (3-3).

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 340 points above Silva's 1049. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Khabilov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Khabilov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Leandro Silva.** The model is firm on this one: Khabilov at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Khabilov at 79% implied while our model sees 89% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.