UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Saturday, August 20, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Conor McGregor won by Decision - Majority (R5)
McGregor 61%39% Diaz
LEANMarket: 53% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Diaz)
Light Heavyweight✓
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 72%28% Teixeira
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Johnson)
Welterweight✗
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cerrone 49%51% Story
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-4.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +282(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cerrone)
Welterweight✗
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R1)
Perry 28%72% Lim
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -116(favors Lim)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Lim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Lim)
Welterweight✓
Tim Means won by KO/TKO (R2)
Means 86%14% Homasi
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +281(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Means)
Bantamweight✓
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 92%8% Mizugaki
STRONGMarket: 81% (+11.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +279(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Mizugaki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Garbrandt)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 77%23% Phillips
STRONGMarket: 70% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +273(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Pennington)
Featherweight✗
Artem Lobov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lobov 39%61% Avila
LEANMarket: 53% (-13.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -180(favors Avila)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lobov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Avila)
Women's Strawweight✗
Cortney Casey won by Submission (R1)
Casey 35%65% Markos
LEANMarket: 43% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Markos)
Welterweight✗
Lorenz Larkin won by KO/TKO (R1)
Larkin 39%61% Magny
LEANMarket: 46% (-7.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -289(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Magny)
Welterweight✓
Colby Covington won by KO/TKO (R3)
Covington 75%25% Griffin
STRONGMarket: 75% (+0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +241(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Covington)
Middleweight✓
Marvin Vettori won by Submission (R1)
Vettori 57%43% Uda
LEAN
→Elo gap: +189(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Uda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Uda)