UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McGregor at 1573, Diaz at 1557. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is McGregor's striker game against Diaz's all-rounder approach. McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Conor McGregor over Nate Diaz.** The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has McGregor at 53% implied while our model sees 61% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1708 versus Teixeira at 1596. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Teixeira's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Glover Teixeira.** We're leaning Johnson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 65% implied while our model sees 72% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Rick Story (12-6). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Story is rated at 1358 — 304 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's knockout artist game against Story's all-rounder approach. Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Story is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Donald Cerrone.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Cerrone, but our model sees only 49%. That 5-point gap favoring Story is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-7) taking on Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3). Lim is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Perry is rated at 1066 — 191 points above Lim's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perry's all-rounder game against Lim's knockout artist approach. Perry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lim is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hyun Gyu Lim over Mike Perry.** We're leaning Lim here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Sabah Homasi (0-2). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Means carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Homasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Sabah Homasi.** The model is firm on this one: Means at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Means at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5). Mizugaki will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 160 points above Mizugaki's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Garbrandt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Takeya Mizugaki.** The model is firm on this one: Garbrandt at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Garbrandt at 81% implied while our model sees 92% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Elizabeth Phillips (1-2).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 488 points above Phillips's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Elizabeth Phillips.** The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 70% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Artem Lobov (2-4) taking on Chris Avila (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lobov at 945 versus Avila at 816. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lobov throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Avila is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Avila has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Avila over Artem Lobov.** The model gives Avila a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Lobov, but our model sees only 39%. That 13-point gap favoring Avila is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Markos carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 904), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randa Markos over Cortney Casey.** The model gives Markos a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Casey, but our model sees only 35%. That 8-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Lorenz Larkin (4-5) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 231 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Larkin's striker game against Magny's wrestler approach. Larkin brings a versatile approach, while Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Lorenz Larkin.** The model gives Magny a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Larkin, but our model sees only 39%. That 8-point gap favoring Magny is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Max Griffin (8-9). Griffin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Covington is rated at 1630 — 479 points above Griffin's 1152. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Covington's wrestler game against Griffin's striker approach. Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Griffin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colby Covington over Max Griffin.** The model is firm on this one: Covington at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Alberto Uda (0-1).

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 524 points above Uda's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uda throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Uda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Alberto Uda.** The model gives Vettori a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.