UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Saturday, July 30, 2016·Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Tyron Woodley won by KO/TKO (R1)
Woodley 41%59% Lawler
LEANMarket: 46% (-4.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -216(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Woodley)
Women's Strawweight✗
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 36%64% Namajunas
LEANMarket: 36% (+0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -114(favors Namajunas)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Namajunas)
Welterweight✗
Jake Ellenberger won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ellenberger 27%73% Brown
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -355(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Brown)
Bantamweight✓
Erik Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 72%28% Rivera
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+14.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Perez)
Flyweight✓
Ryan Benoit won by Decision - Split (R3)
Benoit 59%41% Serrano
LEAN
→Elo gap: -233(favors Serrano)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Benoit)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Serrano)
Light Heavyweight✓
Nikita Krylov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Krylov 59%41% Herman
LEANMarket: 67% (-8.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Herman)
Welterweight✓
Jorge Masvidal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Masvidal 75%25% Pearson
STRONGMarket: 70% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Masvidal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Masvidal)
Heavyweight✓
Anthony Hamilton won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hamilton 61%39% Grabowski
LEANMarket: 55% (+6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +7(favors Hamilton)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Hamilton)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Hamilton)
Flyweight✓
Wilson Reis won by Submission (R1)
Reis 79%21% Sandoval
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +200(favors Reis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Reis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.2(favors Reis)
Welterweight
Graves 73%27% Velickovic
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +109(favors Graves)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Velickovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Graves)
Lightweight✗
Damien Brown won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brown 40%60% Arzamendia
LEANMarket: 52% (-12.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +66(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Arzamendia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -11.2(favors Arzamendia)