UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10).

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 164 points above Lawler's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Tyron Woodley.** The model gives Lawler a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Woodley, but our model sees only 41%. That 5-point gap favoring Lawler is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 550 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.** The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1201 — 354 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ellenberger's all-rounder game against Brown's knockout artist approach. Ellenberger is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Jake Ellenberger.** We're leaning Brown here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5).

Perez is rated at 1303 — 331 points above Rivera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Perez over Francisco Rivera.** We're leaning Perez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 58% implied while our model sees 72% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ryan Benoit (3-5) taking on Fredy Serrano (2-1). Benoit is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Serrano is rated at 984 — 174 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Serrano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Serrano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Fredy Serrano.** The model gives Benoit a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 355 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Krylov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Ed Herman.** The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Krylov, but our model sees only 59%. That 8-point gap favoring Herman is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Masvidal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 730 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Ross Pearson.** The model is firm on this one: Masvidal at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Masvidal at 70% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Hamilton (3-6) taking on Damian Grabowski (0-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Hamilton.

Grabowski carries a modest Elo edge (753 to 722), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Grabowski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Damian Grabowski.** The model gives Hamilton a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hamilton at 55% implied while our model sees 61% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Hector Sandoval (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Reis at 1083 versus Sandoval at 983. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reis throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Sandoval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Reis over Hector Sandoval.** The model is firm on this one: Reis at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Reis at 76% implied while our model sees 79% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Graves (2-0) taking on Bojan Velickovic (2-2-1). Velickovic is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Graves is rated at 1181 — 180 points above Velickovic's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velickovic throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Graves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Velickovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Graves over Bojan Velickovic.** We're leaning Graves here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Graves at 69% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Damien Brown (2-3) taking on Cesar Arzamendia (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 854 versus Arzamendia at 769. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arzamendia throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Arzamendia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.2 more per 15 minutes. Arzamendia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cesar Arzamendia over Damien Brown.** The model gives Arzamendia a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Brown, but our model sees only 40%. That 12-point gap favoring Arzamendia is worth watching.