UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Saturday, July 23, 2016·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's Bantamweight✗
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Shevchenko 41%59% Holm
LEANMarket: 32% (+9.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -240(favors Holm)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Holm)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Shevchenko)
Lightweight✓
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 75%25% Melendez
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+10.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +409(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Melendez)
Heavyweight✓
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ngannou 92%8% Mihajlovic
STRONGMarket: 84% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +210(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Ngannou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mihajlovic)
Women's Strawweight✗
Felice Herrig won by Submission (R1)
Herrig 35%65% Curran
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (-14.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Herrig)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Curran)
Bantamweight✗
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Wineland 43%57% Saenz
LEANMarket: 41% (+1.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -225(favors Saenz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Saenz)
Featherweight✓
Darren Elkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elkins 73%27% Pepey
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Elkins)
Welterweight✓
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 79%21% Yakovlev
STRONGMarket: 70% (+9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -22(favors Yakovlev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.9(favors Usman)
Lightweight✓
Michel Prazeres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Prazeres 71%29% Cottrell
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +91(favors Prazeres)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Prazeres)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Prazeres)
Welterweight✓
Alex Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 61%39% Moontasri
LEANMarket: 66% (-4.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Moontasri)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Oliveira)
Featherweight✓
Jason Knight won by Decision - Split (R3)
Knight 51%49% Alers
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+13.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +8(favors Knight)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Alers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Alers)
Heavyweight✓
Luis Henrique won by Submission (R2)
Henrique 67%33% Smoliakov
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -128(favors Smoliakov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Henrique)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Henrique)