UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Holly Holm (8-6). Holm is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 670 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's all-rounder game against Holm's striker approach. Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holm brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holm throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Holly Holm over Valentina Shevchenko.** The model gives Holm a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Shevchenko at 32% implied while our model sees 41% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Gilbert Melendez (1-5). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 166 points above Melendez's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Melendez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Gilbert Melendez.** We're leaning Barboza here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barboza at 65% implied while our model sees 75% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Bojan Mihajlovic (0-2). Ngannou is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 1400 points above Mihajlovic's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ngannou throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mihajlovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mihajlovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Bojan Mihajlovic.** The model is firm on this one: Ngannou at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 84% implied while our model sees 92% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-4) taking on Kailin Curran (1-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herrig at 822 versus Curran at 736. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Herrig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Curran looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Curran the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curran throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kailin Curran over Felice Herrig.** We're leaning Curran here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 49% for Herrig, but our model sees only 35%. That 15-point gap favoring Curran is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Frankie Saenz (5-4). Wineland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wineland at 865, Saenz at 888. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Saenz over Eddie Wineland.** The model gives Saenz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Godofredo Pepey (5-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Elkins.

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Pepey at 1026. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pepey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Elkins over Godofredo Pepey.** We're leaning Elkins here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 68% implied while our model sees 73% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Alexander Yakovlev (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yakovlev.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 858 points above Yakovlev's 970. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Alexander Yakovlev.** The model is firm on this one: Usman at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 70% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Michel Prazeres (10-3) taking on JC Cottrell (0-1).

Prazeres is rated at 1157 — 351 points above Cottrell's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Cottrell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michel Prazeres over JC Cottrell.** We're leaning Prazeres here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on James Moontasri (2-3). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Moontasri carries a modest Elo edge (984 to 934), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moontasri is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moontasri throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Moontasri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over James Moontasri.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Oliveira, but our model sees only 61%. That 5-point gap favoring Moontasri is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jason Knight (4-4) taking on Jim Alers (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Knight at 987 versus Alers at 882. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alers throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Alers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Jim Alers.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Knight at 38% implied while our model sees 51% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Luis Henrique (2-3) taking on Dmitrii Smoliakov (0-2).

Henrique is rated at 831 — 155 points above Smoliakov's 676. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henrique throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Henrique is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Smoliakov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luis Henrique over Dmitrii Smoliakov.** We're leaning Henrique here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.