UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Saturday, March 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✗
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Ankalaev 45%55% Pereira
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -158(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Ankalaev)
Lightweight✗
Justin Gaethje won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gaethje 49%51% Fiziev
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +341(favors Gaethje)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Gaethje)
Lightweight✓
Ignacio Bahamondes won by Submission (R1)
Bahamondes 58%42% Turner
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Turner)
Women's Strawweight✗
Amanda Lemos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lemos 21%79% Lucindo
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Lemos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Lucindo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Lucindo)
Lightweight✓
Mauricio Ruffy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ruffy 55%45% Green
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -144(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Green)
Flyweight✓
Joshua Van won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Van 58%42% Tsuruya
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.0(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Tsuruya)
Middleweight✓
Brunno Ferreira won by Submission (R2)
Ferreira 59%41% Petrosyan
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Petrosyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Ferreira)
Welterweight✗
Carlos Leal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Leal 50%50% Morono
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -72(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Leal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Leal)
Featherweight✓
Mairon Santos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Santos 63%37% Marshall
LEAN
→Elo gap: +155(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Marshall)
Middleweight✓
Ozzy Diaz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diaz 60%40% Santos
LEAN
→Elo gap: -83(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Santos)