UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Alex Pereira (9-2). Pereira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 231 points above Ankalaev's 1772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ankalaev brings a versatile approach, while Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pereira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Magomed Ankalaev.** The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gaethje.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 535 points above Fiziev's 1312. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaethje is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Justin Gaethje.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiziev at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2) taking on Jalin Turner (7-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bahamondes at 1386, Turner at 1393. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Bahamondes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Turner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Jalin Turner.** The model gives Bahamondes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Iasmin Lucindo (4-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lemos at 1335, Lucindo at 1309. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Lucindo's all-rounder approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lucindo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lucindo throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Amanda Lemos.** The model is firm on this one: Lucindo at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mauricio Ruffy (3-1) taking on King Green (13-12-1). Ruffy will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ruffy is rated at 1462 — 287 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ruffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy over King Green.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruffy at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Rei Tsuruya (1-0). Tsuruya will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Van is rated at 1678 — 657 points above Tsuruya's 1021. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tsuruya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joshua Van over Rei Tsuruya.** The model gives Van a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brunno Ferreira (5-2) taking on Armen Petrosyan (3-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Petrosyan.

Ferreira is rated at 1344 — 434 points above Petrosyan's 910. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Petrosyan brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petrosyan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Petrosyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brunno Ferreira over Armen Petrosyan.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Leal (1-2) taking on Alex Morono (13-9).

Leal is rated at 1189 — 321 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leal throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Carlos Leal.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morono at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Mairon Santos (3-0) taking on Francis Marshall (2-2).

Santos is rated at 1376 — 443 points above Marshall's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Marshall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mairon Santos over Francis Marshall.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ozzy Diaz (0-1) taking on Djorden Santos (0-1). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Diaz at 1022, Santos at 1006. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ozzy Diaz over Djorden Santos.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.