UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Saturday, July 9, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's BantamweightMISS
Amanda Nunes won by Submission (R1)
Nunes 35%65% Tate
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (+4.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -135(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Nunes)
Heavyweight
Lesnar 75%25% Hunt
STRONGMarket: 41% (+33.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Lesnar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Lesnar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Lesnar)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 84%16% Silva
STRONGMarket: 80% (+3.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +212(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Cormier)
FeatherweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Aldo 43%57% Edgar
LEANMarket: 49% (-5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Edgar)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Velasquez 73%27% Browne
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+0.9% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +189(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Velasquez)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julianna Pena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pena 62%38% Zingano
LEANMarket: 42% (+20.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pena)
WelterweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 60%40% Hendricks
LEANMarket: 51% (+9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -139(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Hendricks)
BantamweightHIT
TJ Dillashaw won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dillashaw 61%39% Assuncao
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Assuncao)
LightweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Northcutt 86%14% Marin
STRONGMarket: 76% (+10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +116(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Northcutt)
LightweightHIT
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lauzon 52%48% Sanchez
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Lauzon)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mousasi 79%21% Santos
STRONGMarket: 69% (+9.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Mousasi)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miller 80%20% Gomi
STRONGMarket: 71% (+8.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gomi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Miller)