UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Saturday, July 9, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Women's BantamweightMISS
Amanda Nunes won by Submission (R1)
Nunes 42%58% Tate
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 30% (+11.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -206(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Nunes)
Heavyweight
Lesnar 67%33% Hunt
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+26.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Lesnar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Lesnar)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cormier 87%13% Silva
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Cormier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Cormier)
FeatherweightMISS
Jose Aldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Aldo 43%57% Edgar
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
LEANMarket: 49% (-5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -93(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Edgar)
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Velasquez 78%22% Browne
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+6.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +243(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Velasquez)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Julianna Pena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pena 66%34% Zingano
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 42% (+23.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pena)
WelterweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 57%43% Hendricks
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 51% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -122(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hendricks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Hendricks)
BantamweightHIT
TJ Dillashaw won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dillashaw 61%39% Assuncao
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Assuncao)
LightweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Northcutt 85%15% Marin
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+9.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +141(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Northcutt)
Early Prelims
LightweightMISS
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lauzon 43%57% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 48% (-5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Lauzon)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mousasi 83%17% Santos
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+14.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Mousasi)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miller 79%21% Gomi
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+7.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gomi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Miller)