UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (16-2) taking on Miesha Tate (7-7). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1707 — 579 points above Tate's 1128. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nunes's knockout artist game against Tate's wrestler approach. Nunes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Tate has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miesha Tate over Amanda Nunes. The model gives Tate a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 30% implied while our model sees 42% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Mark Hunt (8-8-1). Lesnar is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lesnar at 1332, Hunt at 1336. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Lesnar's wrestler game against Hunt's striker approach. Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hunt brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lesnar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lesnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Mark Hunt. We're leaning Lesnar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lesnar at 41% implied while our model sees 67% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-3) taking on Anderson Silva (17-7). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cormier is rated at 1991 — 630 points above Silva's 1361. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cormier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cormier throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Cormier over Anderson Silva. The model is firm on this one: Cormier at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Cormier at 80% implied while our model sees 87% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-9) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-11-1).

Aldo is rated at 1541 — 180 points above Edgar's 1361. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edgar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edgar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Jose Aldo. The model gives Edgar a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Aldo, but our model sees only 43%. That 6-point gap favoring Edgar is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Travis Browne (9-7-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 447 points above Browne's 1300. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's knockout artist game against Browne's all-rounder approach. Velasquez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Browne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Travis Browne. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Velasquez at 72% implied while our model sees 78% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-4) taking on Cat Zingano (3-4).

Pena is rated at 1453 — 393 points above Zingano's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Zingano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zingano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Cat Zingano. We're leaning Pena here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 42% implied while our model sees 66% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (14-10) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-8).

Gastelum is rated at 1457 — 203 points above Hendricks's 1254. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hendricks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hendricks the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Johny Hendricks. The model gives Gastelum a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Gastelum at 51% implied while our model sees 57% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-5) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-7).

Dillashaw is rated at 1691 — 431 points above Assuncao's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Raphael Assuncao. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sage Northcutt (6-2) taking on Enrique Marin (0-2).

Northcutt is rated at 1275 — 455 points above Marin's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Northcutt throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Northcutt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Marin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sage Northcutt over Enrique Marin. The model is firm on this one: Northcutt at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Northcutt at 76% implied while our model sees 85% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (15-12) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sanchez at 1216 versus Lauzon at 1099. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Joe Lauzon. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Lauzon, but our model sees only 43%. That 5-point gap favoring Sanchez is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (9-3) taking on Thiago Santos (14-10).

Mousasi is rated at 1837 — 411 points above Santos's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Santos brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Mousasi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mousasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Thiago Santos. The model is firm on this one: Mousasi at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Mousasi at 69% implied while our model sees 83% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-18) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-9).

Miller is rated at 1295 — 450 points above Gomi's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Takanori Gomi. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 71% implied while our model sees 79% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.