The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight championship matchup features Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-4) taking on Claudia Gadelha (7-4). Jedrzejczyk is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jedrzejczyk at 1192, Gadelha at 1187. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Jedrzejczyk's striker game against Gadelha's all-rounder approach. Jedrzejczyk brings a versatile approach, while Gadelha is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jedrzejczyk throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Gadelha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanna Jedrzejczyk over Claudia Gadelha.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jedrzejczyk at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Andrew Sanchez (5-4) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6).

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 574 points above Sanchez's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khalil Rountree Jr. over Andrew Sanchez.** The model gives Jr. a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Amanda Cooper (2-3). Suarez is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 728 points above Cooper's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cooper throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cooper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Cooper.** The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Suarez at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Will Brooks (1-2) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Brooks is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brooks at 934 versus Pearson at 849. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Brooks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Will Brooks over Ross Pearson.** The model is firm on this one: Brooks at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Brooks at 77% implied while our model sees 83% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (4-3-1) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Choi.

Choi is rated at 1314 — 191 points above Tavares's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Choi's knockout artist game against Tavares's wrestler approach. Choi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 12.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dooho Choi over Thiago Tavares.** The model gives Choi a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Andrew Holbrook (2-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holbrook.

Silva is rated at 1139 — 388 points above Holbrook's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holbrook is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Andrew Holbrook.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 53% implied while our model sees 56% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Fernando Bruno (0-1).

Maynard is rated at 975 — 154 points above Bruno's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bruno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fernando Bruno over Gray Maynard.** The model gives Bruno a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 60% for Maynard, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring Bruno is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on John Moraga (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moraga at 1166 versus Nicolau at 1033. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Moraga has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Nicolau's knockout artist game against Moraga's wrestler approach. Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicolau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over John Moraga.** We're leaning Nicolau here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nicolau at 40% implied while our model sees 68% — a 27-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Josh Stansbury (1-1) taking on Cory Hendricks (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hendricks at 915 versus Stansbury at 792. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory Hendricks over Josh Stansbury.** The model gives Hendricks a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Stansbury, but our model sees only 43%. That 14-point gap favoring Hendricks is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Smith carries a modest Elo edge (1070 to 1033), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Anthony Smith.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ferreira at 44% implied while our model sees 53% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Lee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Matthews at 1295 versus Lee at 1197. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Matthews has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over Jake Matthews.** The model gives Lee a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 44% implied while our model sees 55% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Anton Zafir (0-1).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 514 points above Zafir's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zafir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Li Jingliang over Anton Zafir.** We're leaning Jingliang here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.