UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Luke Rockhold (6-4). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 219 points above Rockhold's 1302. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Rockhold's submission artist approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Rockhold is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rockhold throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rockhold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Rockhold over Michael Bisping. The model is firm on this one: Rockhold at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Bisping at 16% implied while our model sees 22% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-2) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cruz at 1446 versus Faber at 1297. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Faber's wrestler approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dominick Cruz over Urijah Faber. The model is firm on this one: Cruz at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Cruz at 79% implied while our model sees 90% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 612 points above Lamas's 1285. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holloway's knockout artist game against Lamas's all-rounder approach. Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lamas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Ricardo Lamas. The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 72% implied while our model sees 83% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Henderson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 440 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lombard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hector Lombard over Dan Henderson. We're leaning Lombard here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 505 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Green's all-rounder approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over King Green. We're leaning Poirier here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Poirier at 62% implied while our model sees 72% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 565 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortega throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Ortega over Clay Guida. We're leaning Ortega here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on James Vick (9-4). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 411 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vick throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Vick over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vick at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Dariush, but our model sees only 49%. That 9-point gap favoring Vick is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Jessica Penne (3-5). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 313 points above Penne's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Jessica Penne. We're leaning Andrade here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Andrade at 51% implied while our model sees 69% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miller.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 341 points above Miller's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Cole Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Caceres at 38% implied while our model sees 52% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Tom Breese (5-2). Strickland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 672 points above Breese's 1141. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Tom Breese. The model gives Strickland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 48% implied while our model sees 61% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Henrique da Silva (2-3) taking on Jonathan Wilson (1-2).

Wilson carries a modest Elo edge (811 to 759), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Wilson over Henrique da Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wilson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Casey (1-2-1) taking on Elvis Mutapcic (0-1-1). Casey will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Casey at 895 versus Mutapcic at 808. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mutapcic throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Casey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Casey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elvis Mutapcic over Kevin Casey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mutapcic at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Casey at 44% implied while our model sees 49% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Marco Polo Reyes (4-3) taking on Dong Hyun Ma (3-4).

Ma carries a modest Elo edge (838 to 772), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ma is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Ma over Marco Polo Reyes. The model gives Ma a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Reyes, but our model sees only 45%. That 6-point gap favoring Ma is worth watching.