UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Sunday, May 8, 2016·Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R2)
Overeem 77%23% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 67% (+10.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +38(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Overeem)
Heavyweight✓
Stefan Struve won by KO/TKO (R1)
Struve 75%25% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+9.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Struve)
Welterweight✗
Gunnar Nelson won by Submission (R2)
Nelson 48%52% Tumenov
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Tumenov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Nelson)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Germaine de Randamie won by KO/TKO (R1)
Randamie 88%12% Elmose
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +57(favors Randamie)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Randamie)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Elmose)
Light Heavyweight✓
Nikita Krylov won by Submission (R2)
Krylov 68%32% Barroso
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+1.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +93(favors Krylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.4(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Barroso)
Women's Strawweight✓
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 71%29% Clark
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +14(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Clark)
Lightweight✓
Rustam Khabilov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khabilov 63%37% Wade
LEANMarket: 64% (-0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Wade)
Middleweight✓
Magnus Cedenblad won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cedenblad 70%30% McLellan
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-3.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +115(favors Cedenblad)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors McLellan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Cedenblad)
Lightweight✗
Josh Emmett won by Decision - Split (R3)
Emmett 47%53% Tuck
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+4.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -141(favors Tuck)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Tuck)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Tuck)
Lightweight✗
Reza Madadi won by KO/TKO (R3)
Madadi 48%52% Cabral
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +59(favors Madadi)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Madadi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Madadi)
Flyweight✓
Kyoji Horiguchi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Horiguchi 89%11% Seery
STRONGMarket: 84% (+4.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Horiguchi)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Horiguchi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Seery)
Welterweight✓
Leon Edwards won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edwards 81%19% Waters
STRONGMarket: 70% (+10.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +115(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Waters)
Flyweight✓
Yuta Sasaki won by Submission (R2)
Sasaki 57%43% Gates
LEANMarket: 44% (+13.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -61(favors Gates)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Gates)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Sasaki)