UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Overeem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 555 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Overeem's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Overeem brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Andrei Arlovski.** The model is firm on this one: Overeem at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 878), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Silva brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Struve has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stefan Struve over Antonio Silva.** We're leaning Struve here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Struve at 65% implied while our model sees 75% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Albert Tumenov (5-2).

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 201 points above Tumenov's 1109. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's wrestler game against Tumenov's striker approach. Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tumenov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tumenov throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tumenov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Gunnar Nelson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tumenov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nelson at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Anna Elmose (0-1).

Randamie is rated at 1341 — 534 points above Elmose's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randamie throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Elmose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elmose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Germaine de Randamie over Anna Elmose.** The model is firm on this one: Randamie at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Randamie at 77% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Francimar Barroso (4-3). Krylov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 439 points above Barroso's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krylov's submission artist game against Barroso's striker approach. Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Barroso brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barroso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Barroso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Francimar Barroso.** We're leaning Krylov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Heather Clark (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Clark.

Clark carries a modest Elo edge (918 to 871), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Heather Clark.** We're leaning Kowalkiewicz here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Chris Wade (4-2). Khabilov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 256 points above Wade's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wade throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Wade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Chris Wade.** The model gives Khabilov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Magnus Cedenblad (4-1) taking on Garreth McLellan (1-3). Cedenblad is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cedenblad is rated at 1063 — 252 points above McLellan's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cedenblad rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. McLellan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cedenblad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. McLellan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magnus Cedenblad over Garreth McLellan.** We're leaning Cedenblad here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Jon Tuck (4-4). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Emmett is rated at 1356 — 350 points above Tuck's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Tuck's wrestler approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Tuck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Tuck over Josh Emmett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuck at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Emmett at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Reza Madadi (3-3) taking on Yan Cabral (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Madadi at 1046 versus Cabral at 900. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madadi throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Madadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Madadi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yan Cabral over Reza Madadi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cabral at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Madadi at 40% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Neil Seery (3-3).

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 567 points above Seery's 961. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Horiguchi's striker game against Seery's wrestler approach. Horiguchi brings a versatile approach, while Seery looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Seery is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Seery has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Neil Seery.** The model is firm on this one: Horiguchi at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Horiguchi at 84% implied while our model sees 89% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Dominic Waters (0-2). Waters will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 734 points above Waters's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Waters is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Dominic Waters.** The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 70% implied while our model sees 81% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Yuta Sasaki (4-4) taking on Willie Gates (1-2).

Sasaki is rated at 1009 — 193 points above Gates's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gates throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sasaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sasaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Willie Gates.** The model gives Sasaki a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sasaki at 44% implied while our model sees 57% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.