UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 475 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's all-rounder game against Evans's striker approach. Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Rashad Evans.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Teixeira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 54%. That 11-point gap favoring Evans is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 216 points above Pennington's 1206. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Rose Namajunas.** The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Namajunas, but our model sees only 39%. That 24-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Darrell Horcher (1-2).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 1200 points above Horcher's 860. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Horcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Darrell Horcher.** The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Hacran Dias (3-4).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 275 points above Dias's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Dias's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Dias looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hacran Dias over Cub Swanson.** The model gives Dias a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 51% for Swanson, but our model sees only 43%. That 8-point gap favoring Dias is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa carries a modest Elo edge (1490 to 1437), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Michael Chiesa.** The model gives Dariush a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Chiesa at 39% implied while our model sees 44% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Pennington is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 529 points above Correia's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's wrestler game against Correia's striker approach. Pennington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Correia brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Bethe Correia.** We're leaning Pennington here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ponzinibbio at 1177 versus McGee at 1037. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against McGee's all-rounder approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio over Court McGee.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ponzinibbio at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 53%. That 6-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Graves (2-0) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 199 points above Graves's 1181. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Graves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Graves over Randy Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Graves at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7).

Dodson is rated at 1256 — 284 points above Gamburyan's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Gamburyan's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Dodson over Manvel Gamburyan.** The model gives Dodson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-5) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-3).

Ferreira is rated at 1033 — 257 points above Bamgbose's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bamgbose throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oluwale Bamgbose over Cezar Ferreira.** The model gives Bamgbose a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 262 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Akhmedov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.