UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Rashad Evans (14-8-1).

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 370 points above Evans's 1307. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's all-rounder game against Evans's striker approach. Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Rashad Evans. The model gives Teixeira a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 62%. That 3-point gap favoring Evans is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-7) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-8). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Namajunas is rated at 1542 — 329 points above Pennington's 1214. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Tecia Pennington. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (13-0) taking on Darrell Horcher (1-3).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2088 — 1296 points above Horcher's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Horcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Darrell Horcher. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (15-10) taking on Hacran Dias (3-5).

Swanson is rated at 1323 — 266 points above Dias's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Dias's wrestler approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Dias looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dias is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cub Swanson over Hacran Dias. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swanson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (15-7) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-7-1). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chiesa at 1566, Dariush at 1557. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dariush throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Michael Chiesa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dariush at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Chiesa at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-6) taking on Bethe Correia (5-6-1). Pennington is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1433 — 494 points above Correia's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's wrestler game against Correia's striker approach. Pennington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Correia brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Bethe Correia. We're leaning Pennington here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8) taking on Court McGee (11-13).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1335 — 223 points above McGee's 1111. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against McGee's all-rounder approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Santiago Ponzinibbio. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 59% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring McGee is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Graves (2-0-1) taking on Randy Brown (14-7). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1497 — 230 points above Graves's 1267. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Graves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Michael Graves. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Graves, but our model sees only 41%. That 14-point gap favoring Brown is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-7) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-8).

Dodson is rated at 1376 — 319 points above Gamburyan's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Gamburyan's wrestler approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Dodson over Manvel Gamburyan. We're leaning Dodson here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Cezar Ferreira (9-6) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-4).

Ferreira is rated at 1117 — 351 points above Bamgbose's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bamgbose throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oluwale Bamgbose over Cezar Ferreira. The model gives Bamgbose a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ferreira at 35% implied while our model sees 40% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-6-1) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-5-1).

Akhmedov is rated at 1411 — 196 points above Santos's 1215. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The model gives Akhmedov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.