UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Frank Mir (16-10). Mir is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mir at 1252 versus Hunt at 1169. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hunt's striker game against Mir's submission artist approach. Hunt brings a versatile approach, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frank Mir over Mark Hunt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mir at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Hunt, but our model sees only 49%. That 7-point gap favoring Mir is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 306 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Magny's wrestler game against Lombard's striker approach. Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Hector Lombard.** The model is firm on this one: Magny at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 49% implied while our model sees 75% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Johnny Case (4-1).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 247 points above Case's 1049. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Case has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Johnny Case.** The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 49% implied while our model sees 60% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Junior at 1144 versus Kelly at 1052. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Kelly is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Junior the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Daniel Kelly.** We're leaning Junior here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 20% implied while our model sees 29% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Steve Bosse (1-1) taking on James Te Huna (5-4). Huna is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bosse is rated at 1141 — 298 points above Huna's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huna throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Te Huna over Steve Bosse.** The model is firm on this one: Huna at 82%. The market implies 30% for Bosse, but our model sees only 18%. That 12-point gap favoring Huna is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Bec Rawlings (2-4) taking on Seo Hee Ham (1-2). Rawlings is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ham carries a modest Elo edge (856 to 787), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bec Rawlings over Seo Hee Ham.** The model gives Rawlings a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rawlings at 48% implied while our model sees 58% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Brendan O'Reilly (1-2). Jouban is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 366 points above O'Reilly's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Reilly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Jouban over Brendan O'Reilly.** The model is firm on this one: Jouban at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Jouban at 81% implied while our model sees 86% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Mark Eddiva (1-2). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 615 points above Eddiva's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Eddiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Eddiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Hooker over Mark Eddiva.** The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Leslie Smith (3-3) taking on Rin Nakai (0-1).

Smith is rated at 1116 — 298 points above Nakai's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Nakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rin Nakai over Leslie Smith.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nakai at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Smith, but our model sees only 48%. That 9-point gap favoring Nakai is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Viscardi Andrade (2-1) taking on Richard Walsh (2-3).

Andrade is rated at 1141 — 300 points above Walsh's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Richard Walsh over Viscardi Andrade.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walsh at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Chad Laprise (6-3). Laprise is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Laprise carries a modest Elo edge (927 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Laprise over Ross Pearson.** The model gives Laprise a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Pearson, but our model sees only 39%. That 9-point gap favoring Laprise is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on Damien Brown (2-3). Patrick will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Patrick at 863, Brown at 854. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Patrick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patrick throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Patrick over Damien Brown.** The model is firm on this one: Patrick at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Patrick at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.