UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-8-1) taking on Frank Mir (16-11). Mir is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Mir carries a modest Elo edge (1367 to 1336), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Hunt's striker game against Mir's submission artist approach. Hunt brings a versatile approach, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hunt over Frank Mir. The model gives Hunt a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Hector Lombard (3-8). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1418 — 339 points above Lombard's 1079. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Magny's wrestler game against Lombard's striker approach. Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Hector Lombard. We're leaning Magny here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 49% implied while our model sees 74% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-8) taking on Johnny Case (4-2).

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 285 points above Case's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Case has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Johnny Case. We're leaning Matthews here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 49% implied while our model sees 65% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-4) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-5). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Junior at 1225 versus Kelly at 1127. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Kelly is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Junior the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Daniel Kelly. We're leaning Junior here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 20% implied while our model sees 35% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Steve Bosse (2-1) taking on James Te Huna (5-5). Huna is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bosse is rated at 1279 — 355 points above Huna's 924. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huna throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Te Huna over Steve Bosse. The model is firm on this one: Huna at 80%. The market implies 30% for Bosse, but our model sees only 20%. That 10-point gap favoring Huna is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Bec Rawlings (2-5) taking on Seo Hee Ham (1-3). Rawlings is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rawlings at 765, Ham at 791. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bec Rawlings over Seo Hee Ham. The model gives Rawlings a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rawlings at 48% implied while our model sees 64% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (8-5) taking on Brendan O'Reilly (1-3). Jouban is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jouban is rated at 1244 — 521 points above O'Reilly's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Reilly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Jouban over Brendan O'Reilly. The model is firm on this one: Jouban at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Jouban at 81% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-10) taking on Mark Eddiva (1-3). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1533 — 739 points above Eddiva's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Eddiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Eddiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over Mark Eddiva. The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Leslie Smith (4-3) taking on Rin Nakai (0-2).

Smith is rated at 1113 — 385 points above Nakai's 729. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Nakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leslie Smith over Rin Nakai. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Viscardi Andrade (3-1) taking on Richard Walsh (2-4).

Andrade is rated at 1203 — 351 points above Walsh's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viscardi Andrade over Richard Walsh. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Andrade at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-13) taking on Chad Laprise (6-4). Laprise is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pearson at 958, Laprise at 962. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Chad Laprise. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-4) taking on Damien Brown (2-4). Patrick will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Patrick at 943 versus Brown at 853. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Patrick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patrick throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Patrick over Damien Brown. We're leaning Patrick here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Patrick at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.