UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Saturday, January 2, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Robbie Lawler won by Decision - Split (R5)
Lawler 56%44% Condit
LEANMarket: 50% (+6.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +254(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Condit)
Heavyweight✓
Stipe Miocic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Miocic 78%22% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 67% (+10.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Miocic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Miocic)
Welterweight✓
Albert Tumenov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tumenov 68%32% Larkin
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-1.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Tumenov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Tumenov)
Featherweight✓
Brian Ortega won by Submission (R3)
Ortega 66%34% Brandao
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Brandao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Brandao)
Lightweight✗
Abel Trujillo won by Submission (R1)
Trujillo 47%53% Sims
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+3.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +148(favors Trujillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Trujillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Trujillo)
Bantamweight✓
Michael McDonald won by Submission (R2)
McDonald 81%19% Kanehara
STRONGMarket: 83% (-2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +155(favors McDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors McDonald)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kanehara)
Welterweight✗
Alex Morono won by Decision - Split (R3)
Morono 20%80% Noke
STRONGMarket: 26% (-6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -221(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Noke)
Women's Strawweight✓
Justine Kish won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kish 66%34% Nunes
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Kish)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nunes)
Lightweight✗
Drew Dober won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dober 30%70% Holtzman
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -218(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Holtzman)
Lightweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Poirier 58%42% Duffy
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +266(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Poirier)
Bantamweight✓
Michinori Tanaka won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tanaka 68%32% Soto
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+13.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +221(favors Tanaka)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Tanaka)
Welterweight✓
Sheldon Westcott won by KO/TKO (R1)
Westcott 59%41% Garcia
LEANMarket: 59% (-0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +17(favors Westcott)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Westcott)