UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Condit.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawler at 1297 versus Condit at 1165. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Condit's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Condit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Carlos Condit.** The model gives Lawler a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lawler at 50% implied while our model sees 56% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Miocic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 989 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Andrei Arlovski.** The model is firm on this one: Miocic at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 67% implied while our model sees 78% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Albert Tumenov (5-2) taking on Lorenz Larkin (4-5).

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 392 points above Tumenov's 1109. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tumenov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tumenov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Lorenz Larkin.** We're leaning Tumenov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Brian Ortega (8-4) taking on Diego Brandao (6-3). Ortega will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ortega is rated at 1490 — 359 points above Brandao's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortega is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brandao is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brandao the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brandao throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brandao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Ortega over Diego Brandao.** We're leaning Ortega here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Tony Sims (1-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sims.

Trujillo carries a modest Elo edge (1031 to 975), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Sims has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Sims over Abel Trujillo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sims at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Trujillo at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Masanori Kanehara (1-1). McDonald is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 208 points above Kanehara's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McDonald throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kanehara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kanehara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael McDonald over Masanori Kanehara.** The model is firm on this one: McDonald at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5). Noke is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morono at 868, Noke at 869. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Noke over Alex Morono.** The model is firm on this one: Noke at 80%. The market implies 26% for Morono, but our model sees only 20%. That 6-point gap favoring Noke is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Justine Kish (3-3) taking on Nina Nunes (4-4).

Nunes is rated at 1155 — 255 points above Kish's 900. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justine Kish over Nina Nunes.** We're leaning Kish here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dober at 1083 versus Holtzman at 988. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Drew Dober.** We're leaning Holtzman here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Dober, but our model sees only 30%. That 8-point gap favoring Holtzman is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Joe Duffy (4-3).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 723 points above Duffy's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Poirier's knockout artist game against Duffy's all-rounder approach. Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Duffy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Duffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Joe Duffy.** The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michinori Tanaka (2-2) taking on Joe Soto (3-4).

Soto carries a modest Elo edge (963 to 929), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tanaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michinori Tanaka over Joe Soto.** We're leaning Tanaka here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Tanaka at 54% implied while our model sees 68% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sheldon Westcott (0-2) taking on Edgar Garcia (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Westcott.

Westcott is rated at 909 — 259 points above Garcia's 650. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Westcott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sheldon Westcott over Edgar Garcia.** The model gives Westcott a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.