UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5). Yadong is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yadong at 1548 versus Cejudo at 1416. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Henry Cejudo.** The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Brendan Allen (13-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Allen at 1696 versus Hernandez at 1602. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hernandez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Brendan Allen.** The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Jean Matsumoto (3-1). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Font is rated at 1361 — 162 points above Matsumoto's 1200. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsumoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jean Matsumoto over Rob Font.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matsumoto at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jean Silva (5-1) taking on Melsik Baghdasaryan (3-1).

Silva is rated at 1537 — 481 points above Baghdasaryan's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Baghdasaryan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jean Silva over Melsik Baghdasaryan.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Julius Walker (1-1). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 225 points above Walker's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Menifield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Julius Walker.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Menifield at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Ibo Aslan (2-2). Aslan is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 318 points above Aslan's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aslan throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Aslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Ion Cutelaba.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aslan at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 410 points above Fili's 1140. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Costa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Andre Fili.** The model gives Costa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (2-0) taking on Nick Klein (0-1). Abdul-Malik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1208 — 417 points above Klein's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdul-Malik throws significantly more leather — a 10.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Nick Klein.** We're leaning Abdul-Malik here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Javid Basharat (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Basharat.

There's a real Elo separation here: Simon at 1223 versus Basharat at 1101. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Simon's all-rounder game against Basharat's striker approach. Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Basharat brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Javid Basharat over Ricky Simon.** We're leaning Basharat here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Austin Vanderford (1-0) taking on Nikolay Veretennikov (1-3).

Veretennikov carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 1010), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Veretennikov throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Veretennikov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vanderford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikolay Veretennikov over Austin Vanderford.** The model gives Veretennikov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nursulton Ruziboev (3-1) taking on Eric McConico (1-1). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Ruziboev.

Ruziboev is rated at 1327 — 399 points above McConico's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruziboev throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruziboev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. McConico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Eric McConico.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruziboev at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-3).

Bukauskas is rated at 1168 — 441 points above Cerqueira's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bukauskas throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bukauskas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Rafael Cerqueira.** The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.