UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Saturday, December 19, 2015·Orlando, Florida, USA
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Rafael Dos Anjos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Anjos 59%41% Cerrone
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +36(favors Anjos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Anjos)
HeavyweightMISS
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R2)
Overeem 50%50% Santos
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -301(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Overeem)
LightweightMISS
Nate Diaz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diaz 36%64% Johnson
LEANMarket: 19% (+16.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Johnson)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Karolina Kowalkiewicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kowalkiewicz 27%73% Markos
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Markos)
FeatherweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 53%47% Jury
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+13.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Jury)
MiddleweightMISS
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Marquardt 34%66% Dollaway
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Dollaway)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Valentina Shevchenko won by Decision - Split (R3)
Shevchenko 40%60% Kaufman
LEANMarket: 42% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +21(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -9.3(favors Kaufman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Kaufman)
MiddleweightMISS
Tamdan McCrory won by Submission (R3)
McCrory 39%61% Samman
LEANMarket: 36% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -334(favors Samman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Samman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors McCrory)
LightweightHIT
Nik Lentz won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lentz 59%41% Castillo
LEANMarket: 52% (+6.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +211(favors Lentz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Lentz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Lentz)
Featherweight
Miller 50%50% Alers
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +9(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Alers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Alers)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 64%36% Edwards
LEANMarket: 70% (-6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +14.3(favors Usman)
WelterweightHIT
Vicente Luque won by Submission (R1)
Luque 72%28% Hassan
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+16.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hassan)
HeavyweightHIT
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ngannou 59%41% Henrique
LEANMarket: 55% (+4.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Henrique)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Henrique)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Henrique)