UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 228 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). Overeem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 221 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Overeem's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Overeem brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Alistair Overeem. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 313 points above Johnson's 1245. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diaz's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Nate Diaz. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Diaz at 19% implied while our model sees 36% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Markos at 974 versus Kowalkiewicz at 871. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. We're leaning Markos here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 36% for Kowalkiewicz, but our model sees only 27%. That 9-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Myles Jury (8-3).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 705 points above Jury's 1141. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Myles Jury. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 39% implied while our model sees 53% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1064 versus Dollaway at 965. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Nate Marquardt. We're leaning Dollaway here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Sarah Kaufman (1-1).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 882 points above Kaufman's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kaufman throws significantly more leather — a 9.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kaufman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sarah Kaufman over Valentina Shevchenko. The model gives Kaufman a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Tamdan McCrory (4-4) taking on Josh Samman (3-1). Samman will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — McCrory at 976, Samman at 993. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Samman throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. McCrory has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Samman over Tamdan McCrory. The model gives Samman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6). Castillo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 209 points above Castillo's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Castillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lentz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Danny Castillo. The model gives Lentz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lentz at 52% implied while our model sees 59% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Jim Alers (1-1). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 891, Alers at 882. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alers throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Alers over Cole Miller. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alers at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Leon Edwards (14-4).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 232 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 14.3 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Leon Edwards. The model gives Usman a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Usman, but our model sees only 64%. That 7-point gap favoring Edwards is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Hayder Hassan (0-1).

Luque is rated at 1250 — 463 points above Hassan's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Hayder Hassan. We're leaning Luque here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 56% implied while our model sees 72% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Luis Henrique (2-3). Ngannou is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 1318 points above Henrique's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ngannou's knockout artist game against Henrique's wrestler approach. Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henrique looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henrique throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Henrique is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Henrique has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Luis Henrique. The model gives Ngannou a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.