UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9). Masvidal is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Masvidal carries a modest Elo edge (1579 to 1507), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benson Henderson over Jorge Masvidal.** We're leaning Henderson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Dominic Waters (0-2). Waters will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 456 points above Waters's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Waters is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Dominic Waters.** The model is firm on this one: Kim at 82%. The market implies 86% for Kim, but our model sees only 82%. That 4-point gap favoring Waters is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alberto Mina (3-0) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4). Mina is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mina is rated at 1186 — 201 points above Akiyama's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mina throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Akiyama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yoshihiro Akiyama over Alberto Mina.** The model gives Akiyama a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 41% for Mina, but our model sees only 35%. That 6-point gap favoring Akiyama is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (4-3-1) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6). Choi is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Choi is rated at 1314 — 488 points above Sicilia's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Choi's knockout artist game against Sicilia's wrestler approach. Choi is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sicilia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 31.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dooho Choi over Sam Sicilia.** The model gives Choi a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dongi Yang (1-3) taking on Jake Collier (5-8). Collier is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Yang is rated at 1066 — 272 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Collier over Dongi Yang.** The model gives Collier a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Yang, but our model sees only 44%. That 4-point gap favoring Collier is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike de la Torre (2-3) taking on Yui Chul Nam (1-1).

Torre carries a modest Elo edge (936 to 890), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torre throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Torre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike de la Torre over Yui Chul Nam.** The model gives Torre a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Torre at 48% implied while our model sees 60% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Tae Hyun Bang (2-2) taking on Leo Kuntz (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bang at 951 versus Kuntz at 832. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bang throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tae Hyun Bang over Leo Kuntz.** The model gives Bang a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bang at 40% implied while our model sees 63% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Seo Hee Ham (1-2) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Casey carries a modest Elo edge (904 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ham throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Casey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cortney Casey over Seo Hee Ham.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Casey at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ham at 43% implied while our model sees 50% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Fredy Serrano (2-1) taking on Yao Zhikui (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Serrano at 984 versus Zhikui at 857. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Serrano throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Serrano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Serrano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yao Zhikui over Fredy Serrano.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zhikui at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marco Beltran (3-2) taking on Guangyou Ning (2-1). Beltran is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ning is rated at 1004 — 187 points above Beltran's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ning throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ning is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marco Beltran over Guangyou Ning.** The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dominique Steele (1-3) taking on Dong Hyun Ma (3-4). Steele will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Steele at 846, Ma at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Steele throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ma is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ma has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominique Steele over Dong Hyun Ma.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Steele at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 55% for Steele, but our model sees only 52%. That 3-point gap favoring Ma is worth watching.