UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Paddy Holohan (3-1).

Holohan is rated at 1041 — 167 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holohan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Paddy Holohan. The model gives Smolka a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Norman Parke (5-2-1) taking on Reza Madadi (3-3). Madadi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Parke carries a modest Elo edge (1101 to 1046), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Parke's striker game against Madadi's wrestler approach. Parke brings a versatile approach, while Madadi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madadi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Madadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norman Parke over Reza Madadi. The model is firm on this one: Parke at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Parke at 67% implied while our model sees 77% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dalby at 1283, Till at 1296. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Till throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Dalby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Till over Nicolas Dalby. The model gives Till a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Dalby, but our model sees only 45%. That 4-point gap favoring Till is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Neil Seery (3-3) taking on Jon Delos Reyes (1-2). Reyes is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Seery at 961 versus Reyes at 880. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Seery has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Seery over Jon Delos Reyes. The model gives Seery a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Mickael Lebout (1-1). Lebout will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ray is rated at 1193 — 202 points above Lebout's 991. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lebout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Mickael Lebout. The model is firm on this one: Ray at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Aisling Daly (1-1) taking on Ericka Almeida (0-1).

Daly is rated at 1055 — 204 points above Almeida's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daly throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Daly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Daly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aisling Daly over Ericka Almeida. We're leaning Daly here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Daly at 50% implied while our model sees 70% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Scott Askham (2-3).

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 331 points above Askham's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jotko brings a versatile approach, while Askham is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Askham the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Askham throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Scott Askham. The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 44% implied while our model sees 57% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Tom Breese (5-2) taking on Cathal Pendred (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Breese at 1141 versus Pendred at 1015. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Breese is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pendred looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pendred the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pendred is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Pendred has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tom Breese over Cathal Pendred. We're leaning Breese here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Robert Whiteford (2-2).

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 154 points above Whiteford's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Robert Whiteford. The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Elkins at 58% implied while our model sees 64% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Garreth McLellan (1-3) taking on Bubba Bush (0-0).

Bush carries a modest Elo edge (842 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bush throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McLellan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bubba Bush over Garreth McLellan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bush at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has McLellan at 26% implied while our model sees 49% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.