UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on John Dodson (10-6).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 347 points above Dodson's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Dodson's striker approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dodson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over John Dodson.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 83% implied while our model sees 92% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 395 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Frank Mir.** The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Arlovski at 59% implied while our model sees 64% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-5).

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 638 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Manuwa's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Manuwa throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Jimi Manuwa.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Blachowicz at 1578 versus Anderson at 1459. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Corey Anderson over Jan Blachowicz.** The model gives Anderson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 43% implied while our model sees 59% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-3) taking on Alex Chambers (1-3).

VanZant is rated at 1038 — 237 points above Chambers's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. VanZant throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. VanZant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Chambers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paige VanZant over Alex Chambers.** The model is firm on this one: VanZant at 88%. The market implies 91% for VanZant, but our model sees only 88%. That 4-point gap favoring Chambers is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Paul Felder (9-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Felder.

Felder is rated at 1363 — 513 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pearson's striker game against Felder's all-rounder approach. Pearson brings a versatile approach, while Felder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Felder over Ross Pearson.** We're leaning Felder here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pearson at 20% implied while our model sees 27% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 483 points above Rivera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lineker's knockout artist game against Rivera's all-rounder approach. Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Lineker over Francisco Rivera.** We're leaning Lineker here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 55% implied while our model sees 66% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Pennington is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 296 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Raquel Pennington.** We're leaning Andrade here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 33% for Pennington, but our model sees only 29%. That 4-point gap favoring Andrade is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-1) taking on Clay Collard (1-2). Collard is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 911, Collard at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Collard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Collard over Tiago dos Santos e Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Collard at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Riggs (5-6) taking on Ron Stallings (1-1). Stallings is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Stallings is rated at 1015 — 173 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stallings throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Stallings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ron Stallings over Joe Riggs.** The model gives Stallings a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Riggs at 39% implied while our model sees 42% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joaquim Silva (6-5) taking on Nazareno Malegarie (0-0).

Silva is rated at 1139 — 207 points above Malegarie's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malegarie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Malegarie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Malegarie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquim Silva over Nazareno Malegarie.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 43% implied while our model sees 52% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.