UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (23-9) taking on Charles Oliveira (25-11). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (1974 to 1901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Holloway's knockout artist game against Oliveira's wrestler approach. Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira. We're leaning Holloway here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 68% implied while our model sees 73% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-13) taking on Erick Silva (7-8). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1418 — 357 points above Silva's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Erick Silva. We're leaning Magny here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 38% implied while our model sees 73% — a 36-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-11) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-12). Cote will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cote is rated at 1256 — 440 points above Burkman's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cote looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Burkman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cote the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cote over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Cote a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on Chad Laprise (6-4).

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 461 points above Laprise's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Laprise's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Laprise brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Laprise over Francisco Trinaldo. The model gives Laprise a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Trinaldo at 22% implied while our model sees 36% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-5) taking on Tony Sims (1-2).

Aubin-Mercier is rated at 1157 — 175 points above Sims's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sims throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Sims has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Tony Sims. We're leaning Aubin-Mercier here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Aubin-Mercier at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Valerie Letourneau (3-3) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-6).

Moroz carries a modest Elo edge (1018 to 965), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moroz throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Letourneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Letourneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valerie Letourneau over Maryna Moroz. The model gives Letourneau a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Letourneau at 33% implied while our model sees 59% — a 26-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Perez (1-3) taking on Sam Stout (9-11). Perez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Perez carries a modest Elo edge (926 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Perez over Sam Stout. The model gives Perez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Felipe Arantes (5-6-1) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-5). Arantes will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Arantes at 991 versus Jabouin at 906. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Arantes's all-rounder game against Jabouin's striker approach. Arantes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jabouin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jabouin throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Yves Jabouin. We're leaning Arantes here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Arantes at 67% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (12-9) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7). Krylov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Krylov at 1472 versus Lima at 1346. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Krylov's knockout artist game against Lima's all-rounder approach. Krylov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lima is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Krylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Krylov at 39% implied while our model sees 50% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Kelades (2-2) taking on Chris Beal (2-3).

Kelades is rated at 963 — 209 points above Beal's 754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beal throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Beal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Beal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Beal over Chris Kelades. The model gives Beal a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kelades at 40% implied while our model sees 44% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Shane Campbell (1-4) taking on Elias Silverio (3-2).

Silverio is rated at 989 — 225 points above Campbell's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campbell throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Silverio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silverio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Silverio over Shane Campbell. The model gives Silverio a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Campbell at 31% implied while our model sees 43% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-7) taking on Daniel Jolly (0-2). Cirkunov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cirkunov is rated at 991 — 398 points above Jolly's 594. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jolly throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jolly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jolly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Daniel Jolly. The model is firm on this one: Cirkunov at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Cirkunov at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.