UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Saturday, July 25, 2015·Chicago, Illinois, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✓
TJ Dillashaw won by KO/TKO (R4)
Dillashaw 54%46% Barao
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Barao)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Miesha Tate won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tate 56%44% Eye
LEANMarket: 65% (-8.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Tate)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Eye)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Tate)
Lightweight✓
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 66%34% Felder
CONFIDENTMarket: 56% (+9.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Felder)
Lightweight✓
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lauzon 77%23% Gomi
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Gomi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Lauzon)
Light Heavyweight✗
Tom Lawlor won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lawlor 36%64% Villante
LEANMarket: 33% (+2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Villante)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Lawlor)
Lightweight✓
Jim Miller won by Decision - Split (R3)
Miller 55%45% Castillo
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (+1.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +241(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Castillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Castillo)
Welterweight✗
Ben Saunders won by Decision - Split (R3)
Saunders 43%57% Robertson
LEANMarket: 48% (-4.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Robertson)
Bantamweight✓
Bryan Caraway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Caraway 58%42% Wineland
LEANMarket: 46% (+12.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +267(favors Caraway)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Caraway)
Lightweight✓
James Krause won by Submission (R1)
Krause 52%48% Cruickshank
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+13.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Cruickshank)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Krause)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Cruickshank)
Lightweight✗
Andrew Holbrook won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holbrook 33%67% Nijem
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -14(favors Nijem)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Nijem)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Nijem)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Elizabeth Phillips won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Phillips 49%51% Duke
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +40(favors Phillips)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Duke)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Duke)
Middleweight✓
Zak Cummings won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cummings 71%29% Steele
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +97(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cummings)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Cummings)