UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Renan Barao (9-7). Barao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 760 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Renan Barao.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dillashaw at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tate at 1077 versus Eye at 950. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tate's wrestler game against Eye's striker approach. Tate looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Eye brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miesha Tate over Jessica Eye.** The model gives Tate a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Tate, but our model sees only 56%. That 9-point gap favoring Eye is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Paul Felder (9-5). Barboza will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Felder is rated at 1363 — 221 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Felder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Paul Felder.** We're leaning Barboza here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barboza at 56% implied while our model sees 66% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lauzon.

Lauzon is rated at 1036 — 304 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lauzon's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Lauzon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Takanori Gomi.** The model is firm on this one: Lauzon at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-4) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). Villante is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lawlor is rated at 1205 — 500 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawlor's wrestler game against Villante's striker approach. Lawlor looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gian Villante over Tom Lawlor.** The model gives Villante a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 263 points above Castillo's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Danny Castillo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Ben Saunders (9-9) taking on Kenny Robertson (4-4). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Robertson is rated at 1097 — 285 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Saunders's knockout artist game against Robertson's wrestler approach. Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Ben Saunders.** The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Saunders, but our model sees only 43%. That 4-point gap favoring Robertson is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

Caraway is rated at 1191 — 326 points above Wineland's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Caraway's wrestler game against Wineland's striker approach. Caraway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wineland brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Caraway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Caraway over Eddie Wineland.** The model gives Caraway a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Caraway at 46% implied while our model sees 58% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Krause.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 556 points above Cruickshank's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Krause is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cruickshank looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruickshank the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Krause over Daron Cruickshank.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krause at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Krause at 38% implied while our model sees 52% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Andrew Holbrook (2-2) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-4). Nijem will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nijem is rated at 944 — 193 points above Holbrook's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Holbrook has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Andrew Holbrook.** We're leaning Nijem here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 41% for Holbrook, but our model sees only 33%. That 9-point gap favoring Nijem is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Elizabeth Phillips (1-2) taking on Jessamyn Duke (1-2). Duke is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Phillips is rated at 923 — 161 points above Duke's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duke throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Duke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessamyn Duke over Elizabeth Phillips.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duke at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Phillips, but our model sees only 49%. That 10-point gap favoring Duke is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Dominique Steele (1-3).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 511 points above Steele's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummings throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Steele has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zak Cummings over Dominique Steele.** We're leaning Cummings here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Cummings, but our model sees only 71%. That 4-point gap favoring Steele is worth watching.