UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
Wednesday, July 15, 2015·San Diego, California, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Frank Mir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mir 32%68% Duffee
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-3.4% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors Duffee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Mir)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferguson 81%19% Thomson
STRONGMarket: 65% (+15.5% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +257(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Thomson)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 60%40% Reneau
LEANMarket: 66% (-5.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -109(favors Reneau)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Reneau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reneau)
BantamweightHIT
Manvel Gamburyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gamburyan 62%38% Jorgensen
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +264(favors Gamburyan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Jorgensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Gamburyan)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Submission (R1)
Lee 74%26% Moontasri
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+3.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Lee)
WelterweightHIT
Alan Jouban won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jouban 87%13% Dwyer
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +135(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dwyer)
FeatherweightHIT
Sam Sicilia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sicilia 65%35% Meza
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Sicilia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Sicilia)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Jessica Andrade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Andrade 78%22% Moras
STRONGMarket: 75% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -84(favors Moras)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.8(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Andrade)
BantamweightMISS
Rani Yahya won by Decision - Split (R3)
Yahya 45%55% Kanehara
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +2(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Kanehara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Yahya)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Strickland 87%13% Araujo
STRONGMarket: 76% (+10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +90(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Strickland)
MiddleweightMISS
Kevin Casey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Casey 33%67% Alcantara
CONFIDENTMarket: 50% (-17.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -182(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Alcantara)
WelterweightHIT
Lyman Good won by KO/TKO (R2)
Good 69%31% Craig
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Good)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Craig)