UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Todd Duffee (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mir at 1252 versus Duffee at 1133. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Mir's submission artist game against Duffee's striker approach. Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Duffee brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffee throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Todd Duffee over Frank Mir.** We're leaning Duffee here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Mir, but our model sees only 32%. That 3-point gap favoring Duffee is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Josh Thomson (3-3). Ferguson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Thomson is rated at 1217 — 152 points above Ferguson's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's submission artist game against Thomson's striker approach. Ferguson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Thomson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Josh Thomson.** The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Ferguson at 65% implied while our model sees 81% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1).

Holm is rated at 1127 — 249 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holm's striker game against Reneau's all-rounder approach. Holm brings a versatile approach, while Reneau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Reneau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Holly Holm over Marion Reneau.** The model gives Holm a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Holm, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Reneau is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Gamburyan is rated at 972 — 236 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Scott Jorgensen.** The model gives Gamburyan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on James Moontasri (2-3). Lee will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee is rated at 1197 — 213 points above Moontasri's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moontasri is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over James Moontasri.** We're leaning Lee here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 70% implied while our model sees 74% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Matt Dwyer (1-2). Dwyer is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 267 points above Dwyer's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dwyer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dwyer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Jouban over Matt Dwyer.** The model is firm on this one: Jouban at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Jouban at 80% implied while our model sees 87% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sam Sicilia (5-6) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-3). Meza will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Meza carries a modest Elo edge (893 to 827), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Sicilia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Meza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Sicilia over Yaotzin Meza.** We're leaning Sicilia here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Sarah Moras (3-5). Moras is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 308 points above Moras's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Moras looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moras the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Moras has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Sarah Moras.** The model is firm on this one: Andrade at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Masanori Kanehara (1-1).

Yahya carries a modest Elo edge (1030 to 985), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kanehara throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Kanehara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Masanori Kanehara over Rani Yahya.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kanehara at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 49% for Yahya, but our model sees only 45%. That 4-point gap favoring Kanehara is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Igor Araujo (2-1).

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 859 points above Araujo's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Igor Araujo.** The model is firm on this one: Strickland at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 76% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Casey (1-2-1) taking on Ildemar Alcantara (4-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Alcantara.

Alcantara carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Alcantara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Kevin Casey.** We're leaning Alcantara here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 50% for Casey, but our model sees only 33%. That 17-point gap favoring Alcantara is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Lyman Good (3-2) taking on Andrew Craig (3-3).

Good is rated at 1228 — 376 points above Craig's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Craig throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyman Good over Andrew Craig.** We're leaning Good here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.