UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R2)
McGregor 67%33% Mendes
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+4.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Mendes)
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R5)
Lawler 38%62% MacDonald
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEANMarket: 38% (+0.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -135(favors MacDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors MacDonald)
FeatherweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by KO/TKO (R3)
Stephens 37%63% Bermudez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 34% (+3.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Bermudez)
WelterweightHIT
Gunnar Nelson won by Submission (R1)
Nelson 66%34% Thatch
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (+28.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Thatch)
BantamweightHIT
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 91%9% Pickett
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONGMarket: 86% (+5.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +326(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Pickett)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by Submission (R1)
Brown 56%44% Means
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 64% (-7.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 91%9% Swick
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+13.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -158(favors Swick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Garcia)
WelterweightMISS
John Howard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Howard 42%58% Pendred
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 49% (-7.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -405(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Howard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Pendred)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garbrandt 91%9% Briones
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 87% (+3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +22(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Garbrandt)
Early Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smolka 59%41% Seery
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 54% (+5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Seery)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Seery)
LightweightMISS
Cody Pfister won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pfister 37%63% Cedeno
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 35% (+2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -214(favors Cedeno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pfister)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cedeno)