UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R2)
McGregor 66%34% Mendes
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+2.5% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Mendes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Mendes)
WelterweightMISS
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R5)
Lawler 40%60% MacDonald
LEANMarket: 38% (+2.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors MacDonald)
FeatherweightMISS
Jeremy Stephens won by KO/TKO (R3)
Stephens 35%65% Bermudez
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (+1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Bermudez)
WelterweightHIT
Gunnar Nelson won by Submission (R1)
Nelson 62%38% Thatch
LEANMarket: 38% (+24.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Thatch)
BantamweightHIT
Thomas Almeida won by KO/TKO (R2)
Almeida 87%13% Pickett
STRONGMarket: 86% (+0.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +248(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Pickett)
WelterweightHIT
Matt Brown won by Submission (R1)
Brown 60%40% Means
LEANMarket: 64% (-4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Brown)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 90%10% Swick
STRONGMarket: 78% (+11.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Swick)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Garcia)
WelterweightMISS
John Howard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Howard 41%59% Pendred
LEANMarket: 49% (-7.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -420(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Howard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Pendred)
BantamweightHIT
Cody Garbrandt won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garbrandt 63%37% Briones
LEAN
→Elo gap: +31(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Briones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Garbrandt)
FlyweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smolka 69%31% Seery
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+15.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +6(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Seery)
LightweightMISS
Cody Pfister won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pfister 42%58% Cedeno
LEANMarket: 35% (+7.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -127(favors Cedeno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Pfister)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cedeno)