UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Chad Mendes (9-4). McGregor is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 196 points above Mendes's 1377. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McGregor's striker game against Mendes's submission artist approach. McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Mendes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Conor McGregor over Chad Mendes.** We're leaning McGregor here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Rory MacDonald (9-3).

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 169 points above Lawler's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against MacDonald's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Robbie Lawler.** The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7). Stephens is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Bermudez at 1068 versus Stephens at 941. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Jeremy Stephens.** We're leaning Bermudez here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Brandon Thatch (2-3). Thatch is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nelson is rated at 1310 — 449 points above Thatch's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's wrestler game against Thatch's striker approach. Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Thatch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thatch throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Thatch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Thatch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Brandon Thatch.** The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nelson at 38% implied while our model sees 62% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-4) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 951 versus Pickett at 834. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Almeida's striker game against Pickett's wrestler approach. Almeida brings a versatile approach, while Pickett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Brad Pickett.** The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 87%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Tim Means (15-13).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 328 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brown the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Tim Means.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Brown, but our model sees only 60%. That 4-point gap favoring Means is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Garcia (5-4) taking on Mike Swick (10-4). Swick is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Swick carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 1006), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Garcia over Mike Swick.** The model is firm on this one: Garcia at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Garcia at 78% implied while our model sees 90% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-6) taking on Cathal Pendred (4-1). Pendred is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pendred at 1015 versus Howard at 932. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pendred looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pendred the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pendred is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pendred has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cathal Pendred over John Howard.** The model gives Pendred a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Howard, but our model sees only 41%. That 8-point gap favoring Pendred is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Henry Briones (1-3). Briones will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 347 points above Briones's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Briones throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Garbrandt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Henry Briones.** The model gives Garbrandt a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Neil Seery (3-3). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Seery at 961 versus Smolka at 874. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Smolka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Seery looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Seery the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Seery is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Seery has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Louis Smolka over Neil Seery.** We're leaning Smolka here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Smolka at 54% implied while our model sees 69% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Cody Pfister (1-2) taking on Yosdenis Cedeno (1-2). Pfister is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cedeno carries a modest Elo edge (880 to 840), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pfister throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cedeno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cedeno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yosdenis Cedeno over Cody Pfister.** The model gives Cedeno a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pfister at 35% implied while our model sees 42% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.