UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico·11 fights
Model: 5/11(45%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R3)
Werdum 28%72% Velasquez
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENTMarket: 19% (+9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Velasquez)
LightweightMISS
Eddie Alvarez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvarez 40%60% Melendez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 39% (+1.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -236(favors Melendez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Melendez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Melendez)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gastelum 89%11% Marquardt
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Marquardt)
FeatherweightMISS
Yair Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 33%67% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Rosa)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 82%18% Hill
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Pennington)
Prelims
FlyweightHIT
Henry Cejudo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cejudo 89%11% Camus
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 90% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Cejudo)
LightweightMISS
Efrain Escudero won by Submission (R1)
Escudero 38%62% Dober
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 42% (-3.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -8(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Escudero)
BantamweightMISS
Patrick Williams won by Submission (R1)
Williams 35%65% Perez
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -319(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Williams)
LightweightHIT
Johnny Case won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Case 84%16% Trevino
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+3.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +153(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Case)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Case)
Early Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Cathal Pendred won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pendred 72%28% Montano
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+30.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +160(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Montano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Pendred)
FeatherweightMISS
Gabriel Benitez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benitez 48%52% Collard
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 30% (+18.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +94(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Collard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Collard)