UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R3)
Werdum 26%74% Velasquez
CONFIDENTMarket: 19% (+7.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -132(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Velasquez)
Lightweight✗
Eddie Alvarez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alvarez 47%53% Melendez
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+7.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Melendez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Melendez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Melendez)
Middleweight✓
Kelvin Gastelum won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gastelum 90%10% Marquardt
STRONGMarket: 81% (+8.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +287(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Marquardt)
Featherweight✗
Yair Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 50%50% Rosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 33% (+16.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Rosa)
Women's Strawweight✓
Tecia Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 68%32% Hill
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Pennington)
Flyweight✓
Henry Cejudo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cejudo 89%11% Camus
STRONGMarket: 90% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Cejudo)
Lightweight✓
Efrain Escudero won by Submission (R1)
Escudero 54%46% Dober
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+12.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +10(favors Escudero)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Escudero)
Bantamweight✗
Patrick Williams won by Submission (R1)
Williams 27%73% Perez
CONFIDENTMarket: 40% (-12.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -213(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Williams)
Lightweight✓
Johnny Case won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Case 73%27% Trevino
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +115(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Case)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Case)
Welterweight✓
Cathal Pendred won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pendred 62%38% Montano
LEANMarket: 41% (+20.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +113(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Montano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Pendred)
Featherweight✗
Gabriel Benitez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benitez 38%62% Collard
LEANMarket: 30% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +73(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Collard)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Collard)