UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Cain Velasquez (12-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Werdum.

There's a real Elo separation here: Velasquez at 1589 versus Werdum at 1495. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Werdum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Velasquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Fabricio Werdum.** We're leaning Velasquez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Werdum at 19% implied while our model sees 26% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Eddie Alvarez (4-2) taking on Gilbert Melendez (1-5). Melendez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Alvarez is rated at 1398 — 422 points above Melendez's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Melendez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Melendez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Melendez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Melendez over Eddie Alvarez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Melendez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Alvarez at 39% implied while our model sees 47% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Marquardt is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 276 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Nate Marquardt.** The model is firm on this one: Gastelum at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Gastelum at 81% implied while our model sees 90% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 742 points above Rosa's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rosa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Rosa over Yair Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosa at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 33% implied while our model sees 50% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1206 versus Hill at 1074. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Angela Hill.** We're leaning Pennington here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Pennington, but our model sees only 68%. That 5-point gap favoring Hill is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Chico Camus (3-3). Camus is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 464 points above Camus's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Chico Camus.** The model is firm on this one: Cejudo at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Efrain Escudero (5-6) taking on Drew Dober (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dober at 1083 versus Escudero at 941. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Escudero looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Escudero the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Escudero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Efrain Escudero over Drew Dober.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Escudero at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Escudero at 42% implied while our model sees 54% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Patrick Williams (1-2) taking on Alejandro Perez (8-3-1). Williams is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1082 — 270 points above Williams's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alejandro Perez over Patrick Williams.** We're leaning Perez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 40% for Williams, but our model sees only 27%. That 13-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Johnny Case (4-1) taking on Francisco Trevino (1-1).

Case is rated at 1049 — 169 points above Trevino's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Case throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Case is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Trevino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Case over Francisco Trevino.** We're leaning Case here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Cathal Pendred (4-1) taking on Augusto Montano (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pendred at 1015 versus Montano at 887. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montano throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pendred is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cathal Pendred over Augusto Montano.** The model gives Pendred a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pendred at 41% implied while our model sees 62% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Clay Collard (1-2). Collard is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Collard carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collard throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Collard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Collard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Collard over Gabriel Benitez.** The model gives Collard a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Benitez at 30% implied while our model sees 38% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.