UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Saturday, May 23, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✗
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R3)
Cormier 38%62% Johnson
LEANMarket: 50% (-12.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -250(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Cormier)
Middleweight✓
Chris Weidman won by KO/TKO (R1)
Weidman 91%9% Belfort
STRONGMarket: 80% (+10.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Weidman)
Lightweight✓
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cerrone 90%10% Makdessi
STRONGMarket: 83% (+6.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +493(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Makdessi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Cerrone)
Heavyweight✗
Andrei Arlovski won by KO/TKO (R1)
Arlovski 33%67% Browne
CONFIDENTMarket: 21% (+12.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Browne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Browne)
Flyweight✓
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 90%10% Moraga
STRONGMarket: 84% (+5.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Benavidez)
Flyweight✓
John Dodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dodson 84%16% Makovsky
STRONGMarket: 83% (+1.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +229(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Dodson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.6(favors Makovsky)
Welterweight✓
Dong Hyun Kim won by Submission (R3)
Kim 74%26% Burkman
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +455(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Kim)
Middleweight✓
Rafael Natal won by Decision - Split (R3)
Natal 58%42% Hall
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Natal)
Welterweight✓
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Covington 73%27% Pyle
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Pyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Covington)
Lightweight✓
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R2)
Makhachev 90%10% Kuntz
STRONGMarket: 77% (+12.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kuntz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kuntz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kuntz)
Flyweight✓
Justin Scoggins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Scoggins 87%13% Sampo
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Scoggins)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Scoggins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Scoggins)