UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Daniel Cormier (11-2) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cormier at 1835 versus Johnson at 1708. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Cormier's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cormier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Daniel Cormier.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 50% for Cormier, but our model sees only 38%. That 12-point gap favoring Johnson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 195 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Belfort's knockout artist approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Vitor Belfort.** The model is firm on this one: Weidman at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Weidman at 80% implied while our model sees 91% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Cerrone carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 989), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over John Makdessi.** The model is firm on this one: Cerrone at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Travis Browne (9-6-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 274 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Browne's knockout artist approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Browne is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Travis Browne over Andrei Arlovski.** We're leaning Browne here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Arlovski at 21% implied while our model sees 33% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on John Moraga (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Benavidez at 1291 versus Moraga at 1166. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Moraga has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Benavidez's knockout artist game against Moraga's wrestler approach. Benavidez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over John Moraga.** The model is firm on this one: Benavidez at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Benavidez at 84% implied while our model sees 90% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on Zach Makovsky (3-3).

Dodson is rated at 1256 — 260 points above Makovsky's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dodson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Makovsky is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Dodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Dodson over Zach Makovsky.** The model is firm on this one: Dodson at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 575 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Burkman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Joshua Burkman.** We're leaning Kim here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8).

Hall is rated at 1378 — 447 points above Natal's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Natal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Natal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Natal over Uriah Hall.** The model gives Natal a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 799 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Covington's wrestler game against Pyle's knockout artist approach. Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colby Covington over Mike Pyle.** We're leaning Covington here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Leo Kuntz (0-1).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1378 points above Kuntz's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kuntz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kuntz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kuntz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Leo Kuntz.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 77% implied while our model sees 90% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Justin Scoggins (4-4) taking on Josh Sampo (1-2). Scoggins is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Scoggins at 861, Sampo at 832. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Sampo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Josh Sampo.** The model is firm on this one: Scoggins at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Scoggins at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.