UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 678 points above Hunt's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Mark Hunt.** The model is firm on this one: Miocic at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 68% implied while our model sees 85% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 604 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Brad Tavares.** The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 43% implied while our model sees 57% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sean O'Connell (2-4) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6).

O'Connell carries a modest Elo edge (903 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: O'Connell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perosh looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perosh the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. O'Connell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean O'Connell over Anthony Perosh.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward O'Connell at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has O'Connell at 42% implied while our model sees 53% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Vick (9-4) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Vick is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 269 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over James Vick.** The model gives Matthews a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Hatsu Hioki (3-4).

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 575 points above Hioki's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hooker's knockout artist game against Hioki's all-rounder approach. Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hioki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hatsu Hioki over Dan Hooker.** The model gives Hioki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Jonavin Webb (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Noke at 869, Webb at 844. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Noke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Webb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Noke over Jonavin Webb.** The model gives Noke a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Noke at 52% implied while our model sees 56% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Daniel Kelly (6-3). Alvey is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kelly is rated at 1052 — 318 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Alvey over Daniel Kelly.** The model is firm on this one: Alvey at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Bec Rawlings (2-4) taking on Lisa Ellis (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rawlings at 787, Ellis at 787. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Rawlings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lisa Ellis over Bec Rawlings.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ellis at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Rawlings, but our model sees only 50%. That 14-point gap favoring Ellis is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Scott (3-4) taking on Dylan Andrews (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Scott at 884 versus Andrews at 780. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Scott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Scott over Dylan Andrews.** The model gives Scott a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Scott at 49% implied while our model sees 62% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alex Chambers (1-3) taking on Kailin Curran (1-5).

Chambers carries a modest Elo edge (801 to 736), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chambers throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kailin Curran over Alex Chambers.** We're leaning Curran here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Chambers, but our model sees only 26%. That 6-point gap favoring Curran is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Brendan O'Reilly (1-2) taking on Vik Grujic (1-2). Grujic is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — O'Reilly at 802, Grujic at 807. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grujic throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Grujic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. O'Reilly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan O'Reilly over Vik Grujic.** The model gives O'Reilly a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has O'Reilly at 47% implied while our model sees 58% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ben Nguyen (4-2) taking on Alptekin Ozkilic (1-2).

Nguyen is rated at 1036 — 225 points above Ozkilic's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ozkilic throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ozkilic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alptekin Ozkilic over Ben Nguyen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ozkilic at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nguyen at 36% implied while our model sees 47% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.