UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Israel Adesanya (13-4). Adesanya will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 317 points above Adesanya's 1559. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Imavov's all-rounder game against Adesanya's striker approach. Imavov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Adesanya brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Israel Adesanya.** We're leaning Imavov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Page (2-1) taking on Shara Magomedov (4-1). Page will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Page is rated at 1419 — 166 points above Magomedov's 1254. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Magomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Page over Shara Magomedov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Page at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5). Pavlovich will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 278 points above Rozenstruik's 1385. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rozenstruik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pavlovich at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vinicius Oliveira (4-0) taking on Said Nurmagomedov (7-3).

Oliveira is rated at 1333 — 152 points above Nurmagomedov's 1181. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Oliveira rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Vinicius Oliveira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nurmagomedov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Mike Davis (4-2). Ziam will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 307 points above Davis's 1249. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fares Ziam over Mike Davis.** We're leaning Ziam here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-1) taking on Kaan Ofli (1-2). Naimov is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Naimov at 1112, Ofli at 1085. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Naimov throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Naimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Ofli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Naimov over Kaan Ofli.** The model gives Naimov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Gaziev (3-1) taking on Thomas Petersen (2-2). Gaziev is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gaziev is rated at 1209 — 281 points above Petersen's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petersen throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Petersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thomas Petersen over Shamil Gaziev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petersen at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5). McKinney will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McKinney is rated at 1110 — 228 points above Hadzovic's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McKinney's submission artist game against Hadzovic's striker approach. McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Hadzovic brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Damir Hadzovic.** We're leaning McKinney here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jasmine Jasudavicius (8-2) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1).

Jasudavicius is rated at 1358 — 343 points above Silva's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jasudavicius rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jasudavicius throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jasudavicius is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Jasudavicius has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius over Mayra Bueno Silva.** We're leaning Jasudavicius here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Bogdan Grad (1-1) taking on Lucas Alexander (1-2). Alexander is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Grad at 880 versus Alexander at 776. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alexander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bogdan Grad over Lucas Alexander.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grad at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Hamdy Abdelwahab (1-1) taking on Jamal Pogues (2-1). Pogues will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Abdelwahab carries a modest Elo edge (1048 to 983), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdelwahab throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdelwahab is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Abdelwahab has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamal Pogues over Hamdy Abdelwahab.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pogues at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.