UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Saturday, March 21, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Demian Maia won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Maia 52%48% LaFlare
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+7.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors LaFlare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors LaFlare)
Welterweight✓
Erick Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 80%20% Koscheck
STRONGMarket: 81% (-1.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +230(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Koscheck)
Lightweight✓
Leonardo Santos won by Submission (R2)
Santos 51%49% Martin
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +187(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Martin)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Amanda Nunes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nunes 92%8% Baszler
STRONGMarket: 80% (+12.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +126(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Nunes)
Lightweight✓
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R3)
Burns 85%15% Oliveira
STRONGMarket: 84% (+1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +169(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Burns)
Featherweight✗
Godofredo Pepey won by Submission (R1)
Pepey 24%76% Fili
STRONGMarket: 26% (-2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Fili)
Lightweight✓
Francisco Trinaldo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Trinaldo 53%47% Arreola
TOSS-UPMarket: 65% (-12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +51(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Arreola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Arreola)
Featherweight✓
Edimilson Souza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Souza 70%30% Kikuno
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +107(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Souza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Kikuno)
Lightweight
Silva 53%47% Dober
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-5.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Dober)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Silva)
Lightweight✓
Leonardo Mafra won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Mafra 52%48% Carrizosa
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -41(favors Carrizosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Mafra)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Carrizosa)
Lightweight✓
Christos Giagos won by Submission (R1)
Giagos 75%25% Oliveira
STRONG
→Elo gap: +31(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Oliveira)
Flyweight✗
Fredy Serrano won by KO/TKO (R3)
Serrano 39%61% Syler
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Syler)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Syler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Syler)