UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Demian Maia (22-11) taking on Ryan LaFlare (7-3).

Maia is rated at 1506 — 258 points above LaFlare's 1248. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maia's wrestler game against LaFlare's striker approach. Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while LaFlare brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. LaFlare throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. LaFlare is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. LaFlare has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan LaFlare over Demian Maia. The model gives LaFlare a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Maia, but our model sees only 36%. That 9-point gap favoring LaFlare is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-8) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-10).

Koscheck carries a modest Elo edge (1114 to 1061), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Silva over Josh Koscheck. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 80%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-3-1) taking on Anthony Rocco Martin (9-6).

Martin is rated at 1520 — 397 points above Santos's 1123. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Santos over Anthony Rocco Martin. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (16-2) taking on Shayna Baszler (0-2).

Nunes is rated at 1707 — 914 points above Baszler's 793. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Shayna Baszler. The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 94%. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 80% implied while our model sees 94% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-10). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Burns is rated at 1542 — 444 points above Oliveira's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Alex Oliveira. The model is firm on this one: Burns at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 84% implied while our model sees 89% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Godofredo Pepey (5-6) taking on Andre Fili (13-12). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Fili.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fili at 1176 versus Pepey at 1065. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pepey's wrestler game against Fili's striker approach. Pepey looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fili brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Godofredo Pepey. The model is firm on this one: Fili at 81%. The market implies 26% for Pepey, but our model sees only 19%. That 7-point gap favoring Fili is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-8) taking on Akbarh Arreola (1-3).

Trinaldo is rated at 1423 — 562 points above Arreola's 860. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arreola throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arreola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Arreola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Akbarh Arreola over Francisco Trinaldo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arreola at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 47%. That 18-point gap favoring Arreola is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Edimilson Souza (3-1) taking on Katsunori Kikuno (2-3). Souza is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Souza is rated at 1209 — 215 points above Kikuno's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Souza rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kikuno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Kikuno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edimilson Souza over Katsunori Kikuno. The model is firm on this one: Souza at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Leandro Silva (3-4) taking on Drew Dober (15-11).

Dober is rated at 1301 — 180 points above Silva's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leandro Silva over Drew Dober. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 58% implied while our model sees 61% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Mafra (1-3) taking on Cain Carrizosa (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mafra at 823 versus Carrizosa at 692. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mafra throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Carrizosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carrizosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Mafra over Cain Carrizosa. The model gives Mafra a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-8) taking on Jorge de Oliveira (0-2).

Giagos is rated at 1042 — 360 points above Oliveira's 682. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christos Giagos over Jorge de Oliveira. The model is firm on this one: Giagos at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Giagos at 64% implied while our model sees 80% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Fredy Serrano (2-2) taking on Bentley Syler (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Serrano at 931 versus Syler at 809. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Syler throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Syler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Syler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bentley Syler over Fredy Serrano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Syler at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Serrano, but our model sees only 45%. That 12-point gap favoring Syler is worth watching.