UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
Saturday, January 31, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight
Silva 74%26% Diaz
CONFIDENTMarket: 81% (-7.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Diaz)
WelterweightMISS
Tyron Woodley won by Decision - Split (R3)
Woodley 47%53% Gastelum
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+0.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +112(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Gastelum)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R2)
Iaquinta 69%31% Lauzon
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +20(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Lauzon)
MiddleweightHIT
Thales Leites won by Submission (R2)
Leites 90%10% Boetsch
STRONGMarket: 80% (+9.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +177(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Leites)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Leites)
WelterweightMISS
Thiago Alves won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alves 47%53% Mein
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Mein)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Mein)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Miesha Tate won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Tate 58%42% McMann
LEANMarket: 38% (+20.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors McMann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors McMann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors McMann)
MiddleweightHIT
Derek Brunson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brunson 84%16% Herman
STRONGMarket: 83% (+0.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Brunson)
FlyweightMISS
John Lineker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lineker 44%56% McCall
LEANMarket: 31% (+12.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +114(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors McCall)
MiddleweightHIT
Rafael Natal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Natal 59%41% Watson
LEANMarket: 59% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Watson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Watson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Natal)
MiddleweightHIT
Ildemar Alcantara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Alcantara 67%33% Moreira
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.8(favors Moreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Alcantara)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 55%45% Enz
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-8.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +120(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Enz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Enz)