UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6).

Diaz carries a modest Elo edge (1185 to 1154), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Diaz's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over Nick Diaz.** We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 81% for Silva, but our model sees only 74%. That 8-point gap favoring Diaz is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Woodley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Gastelum at 1340. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Woodley's striker game against Gastelum's all-rounder approach. Woodley brings a versatile approach, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gastelum throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gastelum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Tyron Woodley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gastelum at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

Iaquinta is rated at 1195 — 159 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Iaquinta is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lauzon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lauzon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Joe Lauzon.** We're leaning Iaquinta here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Iaquinta at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Leites will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leites at 1176, Boetsch at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Leites's wrestler game against Boetsch's knockout artist approach. Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leites throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thales Leites over Tim Boetsch.** The model is firm on this one: Leites at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Leites at 80% implied while our model sees 90% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Jordan Mein (4-4). Mein is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Mein is rated at 1192 — 291 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Mein over Thiago Alves.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mein at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 44% implied while our model sees 47% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Sara McMann (6-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: McMann at 1158 versus Tate at 1077. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Tate is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McMann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McMann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McMann throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. McMann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miesha Tate over Sara McMann.** The model gives Tate a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tate at 38% implied while our model sees 58% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 357 points above Herman's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Ed Herman.** The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Ian McCall (2-2-1). Lineker will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 413 points above McCall's 1042. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McCall brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Lineker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McCall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. McCall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian McCall over John Lineker.** The model gives McCall a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Lineker at 31% implied while our model sees 44% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Tom Watson (2-4). Natal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Natal's all-rounder game against Watson's striker approach. Natal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Watson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Watson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Natal over Tom Watson.** The model gives Natal a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Ildemar Alcantara (4-2) taking on Richardson Moreira (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alcantara at 929 versus Moreira at 831. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Alcantara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Richardson Moreira.** We're leaning Alcantara here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Alcantara at 61% implied while our model sees 67% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Andy Enz (0-2).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 487 points above Enz's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Enz throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Enz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Santos over Andy Enz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Santos, but our model sees only 55%. That 8-point gap favoring Enz is worth watching.